Bulletin Hurricane Dean advisory number 19
National Hurricane Center Miami Fl al
500 pm ast fri aug 17 2007

Dangerous Hurricane Dean racing westward across the Caribbean
Sea

A hurricane warning remains in effect for Guadeloupe and its
dependencies. The warning will likely be discontinued later
tonight.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the US. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico.

A tropical storm warning also remains in effect for the following
islands of the Lesser Antilles: Montserrat, Antigua, Nevis, St Kitts, Barbuda and Anguilla and the British Virgin Islands. The warning will likely be discontinued later tonight.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect along the south coast of
the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the Haiti/Dominican
Republic border. A hurricane watch also remains in effect from Cabo
Beata to the Haiti/Dominican Republic border.

A tropical storm warning and a hurricane watch remains in effect for
Haiti from the Haiti/Dominican Republic border to Port-au-Prince.

At 500 pm ast. 2100 utc the government of Jamaica has issued a hurricane watch for Jamaica. A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area generally within 36 hours.

At 500 pm ast 2100 utc the government of Cuba has issued a tropical storm watch from the province of Camaguey eastward to the province of Guantanamo. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area generally within 36 hours.

At 500 pm ast 2100 utc the hurricane warning for Martinique and Dominica has been discontinued.

At 500 pm ast 2100 utc the tropical storm warning for St. Lucia, Saba, St. Eustatius, St. Maarten has been discontinued. Interests elsewhere in the central and western caribbean including the Cayman Islands should closely monitor the progress of Dean.

At 500 pm ast 2100z the center of hurricane Dean was located near latitude 15.0 north longitude 64.5 west or about 840 miles-1355 km east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica and about 260 miles-415 km south-southeast of San Juan Puerto Rico. Dean is moving toward the west near 21 mph-33 km/hr.

This motion is expected to continue through saturday with a gradual decrease in forward speed. On this track the core of the hurricane will be moving well south of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic tonight and saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph-205 km/hr with higher gusts. Dean is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. Another reconnaissance plane is scheduled to reach Dean tonight. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles-45 km from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185
miles-295 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb-28.38 inches.

Storm total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches can be expected from
Dean over Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and Haiti with
maximum amounts up to 5 inches possible. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the national hurricane
center at 800 pm ast followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
pm ast.

Source: National Hurricane Center, forecaster avila/mainelli