• Submitted by: manso
• Politics and Government
• 03 / 02 / 2011

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Wed Mar 2, 2011 12:17pm EST. HAVANA (Reuters) - American Alan Gross faces a possible 20-year sentence for crimes against the security of state in a trial in Cuba on Friday.

Gross, who already has been jailed for 15 months, is accused of importing illegal satellite communications equipment to provide Internet access to Cubans in violation of Cuban law.

The case is the latest episode in the long history of bitterness between the United States and Cuba, who have been ideological foes since Cuba's 1959 communist revolution put Fidel Castro in power. He was succeeded by brother Raul Castro in 2008.

Here are some possible scenarios on how it plays out:

GROSS FOUND GUILTY, GIVEN LONG PRISON SENTENCE

Most observers believe this is the likely outcome because Gross appears to have clearly violated Cuban law and because of the politically charged nature of the case. It is also believed that Cuba wants to send a strong signal to the United States to stop U.S. programs aimed at undermining the government.

Prosecutors have said they will seek a 20-year sentence, which the three-judge panel could impose or reduce. The judges' decision likely will be announced at the end of the proceedings, which are expected to last a day or so. The defendant can appeal the verdict to Cuba's Supreme Court.

If Gross is sentenced to a long prison term, U.S-Cuba relations would suffer but how much may depend on the U.S. reaction.

President Barack Obama has eased restrictions on travel to Cuba, imposed by a U.S. trade embargo in place since 1962, allowed a free flow of remittances and initiated talks on migration and restoration of direct mail service.

The White House could roll back some or all of its steps and impose new punitive measures. Or it could negotiate with Cuban leaders to see what can be done to gain Gross' release. It is also possible that such discussions already have begun, perhaps directly or through a third party.

Cuba would like to see the United States take steps such as removing Cuba from the U.S. State Department's list of terrorist-sponsoring nations, eliminating programs like the one Gross worked for and releasing five Cuban agents imprisoned in the United States since 1998. They also would like further loosening or elimination of the trade embargo.

It is also possible that Cuba wants to make an example of Gross and keep him in jail for his full sentence. A lengthy stay in prison would keep relations between Washington and Havana stalemated, as they have been for five decades.

GROSS FOUND GUILTY, RELEASED ON HUMANITARIAN GROUNDS

Gross' wife, Judy Gross, has pleaded with Cuba to release her husband because their 26-year-old daughter and his 88-year-old mother have cancer. She also said his health is deteriorating. Cuba prides itself on being a humanitarian country but may view Gross' imprisonment as a just response to the United States' rejection of long-standing demands to free the agents.

Some observers think Cuba will convict Gross and sentence him to a long prison term but then release him due to his family's problems. This might require concessions from the United States, or it might prompt more steps toward rapprochement.

GROSS FOUND NOT GUILTY, GOES HOME

Cuba has promised a fair trial for Gross but all things considered this would be a major surprise. It would bring improvements in U.S.-Cuba relations.

Source: www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/02/