• Submitted by: manso
• Editorial Articles
• 11 / 29 / 2010

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By COHA Director Larry Birns and Research Associate Kelsey Strain.  Some of you may get the Council on Hemispheric Affairs (COHA)'s articles and analyses. What I found interesting was that I received this first via the Cuban bulletin El Heraldo (not to be confused with the Miami rightwing El Nuevo Herald) put out by Nestor Garcia Iturbe.

As I've explained from time to time, Cuba-In -Out isn't just to pass on and comment on news from and about Cuba, it's also to give readers a sense of how Cuba sees the world. Nestor Garcia does not usually add comments and critiques,as I do, but he does highlight in red certain passages he wants to draw his readers'attention to.

As usual, I will add my own comments. For instance, COHA's Larry Birns tends to understate the aggressiveness of US policy towards Cuba. He chides Obama because, after initially indicating the US would improve relations with Cuba," the administration has appeared to be increasingly uninterested in moving matters forward".

Actually, I wouldn't say Obama was "uninterested". He made clear last summer that he intended to open up travel to Cuba for US citizens to at least the level that prevailaved during the Clinton years. Then, suddenly, with no explanation, he backed down. No one knows exactly why.

Some say his top advisers warned him such a move before the midterm elections would hurt Democratic candidates' chances. Others believe anti-Castro members of his party like Bob Menendez (a so-called "Cuban-American" who was not born in that country and has never set foot in it) scared him off. At any rate, Obama backed down (as did the House Foreign Affairs Committee headed by Howard Berman) and we've heard no more about freedom to travel since.

Birns repeatedly acts as though the US policy towards Cuba is a passive one (and implicitly criticizes Obama for not being more proactive in improving relations). But US policy is NOT passive - it is very aggressive. And by failing to change this, Obama is not "doing anything" - he is continuing to carry out this aggressive policy.


The Mid-Term Elections: An Easy Prediction for the Future of U.S.-Cuba Relations

As the April 2009 Summit of the Americas drew to a close in Trinidad and Tobago,President Obama's statement that the U.S. was prepared to seek new relations with Cuba favorably resonated with the assembled Latin American leaders. But up to now, only minimal progress has been made in implementing a new policy, with the exception of relaxed restrictions on travel and remittances for Cubans living in the United States.

Echoing the same formulaic slogans uttered by former U.S. presidents for half a century, Obama, on the relatively rare occasion that he has anything to say about Latin American issues, continues stress a "wait and see" approach, in which Havana will have to earn the right to be a negotiating partner.

Undeniably, in the year and a half following the 2009 summit, Cuba repeatedly has demonstrated its willingness to begin thawing its frozen ties with Washington, giving Obama a timely opportunity to make substantial changes in U.S. policy towards the island. However, since then, the administration has appeared to be increasingly uninterested in moving matters forward. Placing the Cuba issue within the broader context of U.S.-Latin American relations, the hope for a bold revision of hemispheric policy under Obama's administration has been diminished.

Simply put, U.S.-Latin American diplomacy hovers alarmingly close to nonexistence, and is almost indistinguishable from what it was during the Bush presidency. What is more, it is unlikely that much will change [All the more reason why the Dems in office should act NOW. So why aren't they?

The Implications of the Mid-Term Election Results

Although a handful of surviving House liberals and centrists will continue to maintain a strong opposition to travel restrictions and the trade embargo, Cuban policy is likely to remain on the backburner for the time being in Washington, if not completely at a standstill. Veteran Republican Representative Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, herself a Cuban-American, is expected to block any remaining efforts to change the U.S.'s modest policies. Taking over as chairwoman of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL) will replace Democratic Representative Howard L Berman, who collaborated with Republican Senator Richard Lugar in April 2009 to formulate a convincing argument in favor of terminating the embargo.

Bill H.R. 4645, known as the Travel Restriction Reform and Trade Enhancement Act, would end travel restrictions to Cuba for all Americans-a very significant change in U.S. policy. Nevertheless, the bill has remained stationary for months now, with no signs of forward movement. With Ros-Lehtinen as chairwoman, it is certain that any movement in favor of a detente will be blocked at the passing.

Castro's Initiative

It is really disturbing to think that COHA does not realize that the changes Cuba is undergoing are in no way "concessions" to US pressure, but have been evolving to meet the internal needs of that country. It's openness to talking with the US on any issue has been long-stated, and would never involve "concessions" on matters of its fundamental principles.

Source: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/CubaNews/message/119176