Tomas: A Worst Case Scenario for Haiti
- Submitted by: manso
- Society
- 11 / 02 / 2010
By Jim Andrews, Senior Meteorologist. Nov 1, 2010; 1:40 PM ET. Tomas will almost certainly adversely affect the weather in Haiti later this week and, in a worst-case scenario, could wreak devastation.
Through Wednesday, the storm's path will be fairly straight forward as it takes essentially a westward track over the open Caribbean Sea.
Beginning Thursday, a dip in the jet stream over the Gulf together with an eastward shift in Atlantic high pressure will bring a change in tack for Tomas. It will likely slow then veer towards the north.
For the quake-stricken city of Port-au-Prince and the nation as a whole, the worst scenario would be for the center of Tomas to track northward into Haiti slightly east of the city as a powerful hurricane.
This satellite image of Tomas was taken on Sunday. (Image courtesy of NOAA)
Such a track would inevitably lead to extreme flooding rainfall on hillsides and mountains, including those rising about the capital city.
Runoff from deforested slopes has a history of triggering deadly flooding and mud flows in Haiti, and this could happen in the thickly settled lowlands reaching eastward and northward from the city center of Port-au-Prince.
It is this writer's hope that Tomas's outcome in Haiti is not at all like this worst-case scenario.
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2010 AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center
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Source. http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/40921/hurricane-tomas-a-wors...
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