Cuban meteorologist Alejandro Adonis Herrera addressed the public on Thursday through a Facebook post, aiming to clarify the widespread rumors about an impending "intense heat wave" set to hit Cuba in the coming days.
Adonis explained that while there is indeed a strong anticyclone present in the middle levels of the troposphere, its center is expected to remain over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, near Cuba and the Yucatán Peninsula, over the next five days.
He stressed, however, that this system is not the same as the one described in viral posts, which inaccurately placed it in the eastern Caribbean. Furthermore, it is not a surface anticyclone, meaning it does not affect sea-level pressure fields.
The meteorologist noted that the anticyclone will likely cause a general decrease in rainfall across the Yucatán Peninsula and Cuba, as well as to a lesser extent in the eastern Caribbean, potentially leading to significantly high temperatures.
Adonis made sure to distinguish between two similar yet different concepts: "A heat wave occurs when temperature thresholds are exceeded over a prolonged period. It must be a widespread phenomenon, not isolated to one or two locations."
Providing his technical perspective, Adonis stated, "For Cuba, a heat wave might be considered when at least 20% of the country's meteorological stations record maximum temperatures of 37°C or higher for at least five days."
He was clear in dismissing the possibility of such an event occurring: "I don't believe this will be the case at this time."
Adonis acknowledged the challenging heat that residents should prepare for: "Temperatures over 34°C, combined with Cuba's humidity, are undeniably uncomfortable, especially in areas reaching 37 or 38, which is possible. Yet, heat is not synonymous with a heat wave."
The meteorologist took the opportunity to critique the historical stance of the Cuban Meteorological Service, which has long maintained that heat waves do not occur in the country.
He recalled a meteorologist's televised explanation that Cuba's elongated and narrow archipelago, along with coastal breezes, prevented extreme temperatures like 40°C, a notion Adonis found "unconvincing." He added, "In recent years, we've reached and exceeded this threshold. They overlooked global warming."
Adonis hinted that political motives might underlie the official stance: "Perhaps the narrative that 'nothing happens in Cuba, even the weather is wonderful' was more about politics than meteorology, despite the reality of heat waves on the island."
In 2023, the Institute of Meteorology (INSMET) dismissed claims of a heat wave in Cuba, despite widespread speculation among its residents due to recent high temperatures.
A study published in May 2025 was the first to identify an increase in daily mortality rates linked to heat waves in Cuba.
The official forecast from INSMET for Friday predicts maximum temperatures ranging from 32 to 35 degrees Celsius, higher in some interior areas, with partly cloudy skies, isolated showers in the interior and southern regions, and weak variable winds with afternoon sea breezes.
This situation fits within a larger context: INSMET has projected that May 2026 will be an exceptionally warm month across the nation, with temperatures exceeding historical averages in all three regions, and the upcoming summer is expected to bring hotter conditions with little nighttime relief.
In April 2024, Cuba surpassed the 40°C mark for the first time, recording 40.1°C in Jucarito, Granma, and in May 2025, several stations reported 37°C in different provinces. These events highlight the rising trend Adonis points to as evidence that heat waves are indeed a reality in Cuba, a fact that the regime has long chosen to ignore.
Understanding the Impact of Heat Waves in Cuba
What causes heat waves in Cuba?
Heat waves in Cuba are often caused by anticyclones that lead to decreased rainfall and increased temperatures, combined with factors like global warming and local humidity.
How does the Cuban government typically respond to heat wave predictions?
Historically, the Cuban government, through its Meteorological Service, has downplayed the occurrence of heat waves, often citing geographic factors as protective against extreme temperatures.
What are the expected temperatures in Cuba during a heat wave?
During a heat wave, temperatures in Cuba could reach 37°C or higher, especially if 20% of meteorological stations report such levels for several consecutive days.