A recent NBC6 and Telemundo 51 state survey, conducted by Mason-Dixon less than a month before Florida’s general elections, reveals Republican Byron Donalds holding a seven-point lead over Democrat David Jolly in the gubernatorial race. Meanwhile, Amendment 3, which concerns property tax changes, is still falling short of the required support to be added to the state Constitution.
Donalds is currently favored by 48% of voters compared to Jolly's 41%. An independent candidate has the backing of 1%, while 10% remain undecided. However, these figures should be viewed within the survey's margin of error and do not necessarily predict the November 3rd election outcome.
Latino Vote Crucial in South Florida
The race is notably closer among Hispanic voters, with Donalds at 48% and Jolly at 43%. The survey categorizes respondents only as Hispanic, so these results may not specifically reflect Cuban voters in Miami-Dade or other areas of the state.
This is particularly significant for South Florida, where the Latino vote is influential, and both campaigns have been working for months to secure support. The survey emerges as the contest between Donalds and Jolly intensifies the battle for the Cuban vote in Florida, especially with Cuban-American Bryan Avila playing a prominent role in Donalds' campaign.
Regional and Demographic Breakdown
Regionally, Donalds leads Jolly in North Florida with 60% to 33%, in Central Florida with 55% to 33%, and in the Southwest with 57% to 33%. Jolly, however, is ahead in Tampa Bay, holding 48% over 42%, and in Southeast Florida with 52% compared to 36%.
Differences are also evident across gender and age groups. Donalds is preferred by 55% of men, while Jolly garners 33%. Among women, Jolly leads with 49% against Donalds' 41%. For voters aged 18 to 34, Jolly edges out Donalds 48% to 46%, whereas voters over 65 show a stronger preference for Donalds at 51% to 35%.
Senate Race and Amendment 3
The survey also assessed the federal Senate race, showing Republican Ashley Moody with 50% compared to Democrat Angie Nixon's 40%. Independent Neil Gillespie has 2%, and 8% remain undecided. Among Hispanic voters, Moody is ahead but with a narrower margin of 47% to 40%.
One of the most notable findings relates to Amendment 3, which seeks to increase the homestead exemption for non-school property taxes. It currently has 55% support, 26% opposition, and 19% undecided. Despite majority backing, it falls short of the 60% needed for constitutional approval in Florida.
The amendment proposes raising the exemption to $150,000 in 2027 and $250,000 in 2028 for non-school taxes. While it could lower tax bills for many homeowners, it may also reduce revenue for counties and municipalities.
This issue is crucial in Miami-Dade, where Cuban-American officials publicly support Amendment 3 despite potential annual revenue losses of approximately $445 million once fully implemented. For homestead-exempt homeowners, the estimated average annual savings in Miami-Dade is around $1,500.
Public Opinion on Trump and Immigration
The survey also highlights Floridians' mixed views on President Donald Trump's performance, with 48% approving and 48% disapproving, and another 4% undecided. Among Hispanics, 49% disapprove, while 45% approve. These findings follow a national NBC News and Telemundo poll indicating declining Latino support for Trump nationwide, but the data sets are distinct and not directly comparable.
On immigration, 51% of Floridians disapprove of Trump's administration's handling of immigration law enforcement, while 46% approve. Yet, 53% support state and local police cooperation with ICE, whereas 45% oppose it. Furthermore, a 57% majority favors retaining current birthright citizenship laws, while 20% would prefer congressional legislation to limit it, and 17% would support amending the Constitution to eliminate it.
These results suggest voters may endorse specific immigration measures while disapproving of the administration's overall approach or resisting more drastic changes in citizenship policies.
The Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy survey was conducted from September 28 to October 1 through live telephone interviews with 625 registered Florida voters who intend to participate in the general elections. The sample included 277 Republicans, 214 Democrats, and 134 independents, with a maximum margin of error of ±4 percentage points.
The poll was completed before the formation of Tropical Storm Isaias, which developed into a storm on Wednesday, October 7, in the Gulf of Mexico. Thus, any potential political, economic, or logistical impacts of the cyclone were not captured in the survey period.
With the elections approaching and in-person early voting yet to commence in South Florida, the survey provides a snapshot of the race as of early October. However, with 10% of voters still undecided in the gubernatorial race and nearly one in five without a clear stance on Amendment 3, there remains significant room for shifts in voter sentiment before the November 3 elections.
Frequently Asked Questions about Florida's Gubernatorial Race and Amendment 3
What is the current status of the Florida gubernatorial race?
Republican Byron Donalds is leading Democrat David Jolly by seven points, according to a recent survey. However, 10% of voters are still undecided, and the race is close among Hispanic voters.
What would Amendment 3 change in Florida's property tax system?
Amendment 3 aims to increase the homestead exemption for non-school property taxes, potentially reducing tax bills for many homeowners but also decreasing revenue for local governments.
How does the Florida electorate view President Trump's performance?
The survey shows a split opinion on Trump's performance, with 48% approving and 48% disapproving. Among Hispanic voters, the disapproval rate is slightly higher at 49%.
What are the views on immigration enforcement in Florida?
While 51% disapprove of Trump's immigration enforcement, 53% support cooperation between state and local police and ICE. Opinions on birthright citizenship remain divided.