Did the Democratic Party Attempt to Use Cuban Dissidents to Reclaim Florida?

In a CiberCuba discussion featuring Julio Shiling, Zoé Valdés, and César Reynel Aguilera, political analyst and director of Patria de Martí, Julio Shiling, argued that the Democratic Party deliberately crafted a strategy to leverage members of the "new wave" of Cuban dissidents in exile to weaken the Cuban-American political stronghold in South Florida.

During the "Transition in Cuba" program, hosted by Tania Costa, Shiling detailed his perspective: "The Democratic Party's plan was to have some members of this new wave of Cuban dissidents help undermine the control that the Cuban right currently holds in South Florida. That was the plan," he asserted.

Shiling's analysis suggests that this approach was aligned with the "Obamism" philosophy and the Obama Administration's rapprochement with Cuba, aiming to reshape the Cuban-American vote by introducing a new influx of migrants and dissidents. The ultimate goal, as Shiling paraphrased the Democratic intent, was: "We're going to take Florida away from the Republican Party. Sure. That was the plan."

However, Shiling noted that the plan did not succeed. "It didn't work because Trump was re-elected. It didn't work for a myriad of reasons, but in my opinion, that was part of the plan," he explained.

Understanding the Complex Dynamics

Writer César Reynel Aguilera cautioned against oversimplifying the narrative by viewing "the United States" as a monolithic actor. "We have to be very precise in this regard because the Trump Administration is not the same as the second Bush's," he pointed out, emphasizing that differences between administrations, political climates, and regions—such as California, New York, Florida, Texas, and Nebraska—are crucial for understanding the relationship between Washington and the Cuban exile community.

Continuing on this theme, the discussion participants condemned what Reynel Aguilera called a "collusion operation between Castroism and the American left," which allegedly includes the creation of news dissemination sites aimed at influencing the exiled community.

The Urgent Case of Political Prisoners

The debate took on immediate significance due to the situation of Maykel "Osorbo" Castillo Pérez and Luis Manuel Otero Alcántara, two prominent political prisoners from July 11th protests. Both were removed from their prisons without notifying their families—Otero Alcántara on July 7th and Osorbo on July 10th—after accepting exile under a regime ultimatum that offered either leaving Cuba or remaining imprisoned until 2030. The Trump administration had given Cuba a two-week deadline in April to release political prisoners. That deadline passed unmet. Finally, Otero was scheduled to arrive in Miami on July 18th.

Reynel Aguilera expressed hope that both would soon reach Florida but warned about the susceptibility of newcomers to manipulation. "There are many things we can't convey to these new arrivals, showing them how vulnerable they are to manipulation by those who released them and many who await them, because they are colluding," he warned.

The Democratic Strategy in Florida

In 2026, the Florida Democratic Party launched a strategy to win back the Cuban-American vote ahead of the November midterm elections, focusing on economic issues such as the cost of living, housing, and healthcare.

For dissidents arriving in exile, Reynel Aguilera summed up his advice in two words: "Decency and pragmatism, pragmatism and decency. If you reach exile, don't attack those who have not attacked you."