Miami-based journalist and political analyst Miguel Cossío has identified six concurrent crises suffocating the Cuban regime in an analysis conducted between June and July 2025. He warns that none of these crises can be resolved within the current political framework.
Cossío shared his insights during an interview where he also identified Ramón Romero Curbelo—head of the Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of the Interior—in photographs from a meeting between the CIA director and Cuban officials held last Thursday in Havana.
Energy Woes: A Double-Edged Crisis
The first crisis, according to Cossío, is the energy sector, plagued by two intertwined issues: a severe fuel shortage and the deteriorating state of the National Electric System.
"Cuba faces two distinct energy problems," Cossío stated. "Even if they had access to all the oil in the world, it wouldn't solve their core issue, which is the generation of electricity due to the poor condition of the national electric system."
Economic and Financial Instability
The second crisis is economic and financial in nature, extending far beyond mere goods shortages.
"They lack capital due to scarce foreign investments, limited access to external funds, and insufficient revenue from avenues like tourism," Cossío explained, noting that Cuba's economy has contracted by approximately 23% since 2019.
Health and Social Challenges
The third crisis is a healthcare disaster, marked by rampant unsanitary conditions and a critical shortage of medications affecting the entire population.
The fourth crisis encompasses social issues, including water scarcity, street violence, accumulating trash, and a housing shortfall nearing a million units.
Demographic Decline: A Long-Term Concern
The fifth crisis, demographic in nature, is one of the most severe in the long run.
"I estimate nearly two million people have left Cuba," Cossío remarked, referring to the period between mid-2022 and 2026, with even conservative estimates suggesting 1.5 million emigrants.
This unprecedented exodus has drastically reduced the workforce aged 25 to 50 and lowered birth rates, rendering any substantial economic reform impossible: "They lack manpower," the analyst summarized.
Institutional Weakness and Governance Issues
The sixth and final crisis is institutional and governance-related, featuring a profound leadership vacuum.
Cossío recalls that Díaz-Canel rose to power almost by default, with Raúl Castro once publicly stating that Diaz-Canel was the last of his generation, suggesting he was chosen almost by elimination.
The civil power—Díaz-Canel, Manuel Marrero, Roberto Morales O'Hara, and Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla—plays a largely administrative role: "The civil Cuban political class wields very limited power. It's more akin to managing a store," Cossío observed.
Cossío asserts that true control lies with Raúl Castro, whom he describes as "a kind of North Korean-style monarch," supported by four power bases: the family nucleus, the military-business elite linked to GAESA, the generals of the Armed Forces, and the security forces of the Ministry of the Interior.
Regarding this last base, Cossío is unequivocal: "The mission of the security forces in Cuba, particularly the Ministry of the Interior, is fundamentally repression. Their primary task is to prevent ordinary citizens from changing the regime. This has been the case since January 1, 1959, to the present day."
Cossío's analysis comes amid heightened U.S. pressure on Havana: the United States sanctioned GAESA on May 7, and just a week later, the CIA director met in Havana with the individuals Cossío identifies as the real power brokers in Cuba.
Understanding Cuba's Complex Crises
What are the main crises identified by Miguel Cossío?
Miguel Cossío has identified six main crises in Cuba: energy, economic and financial, healthcare, social, demographic, and institutional governance.
How has the demographic crisis affected Cuba?
The demographic crisis has led to a significant emigration of nearly two million people, depleting the workforce aged 25 to 50 and reducing birth rates, which impedes substantial economic reforms.
What role does Raúl Castro play in Cuba's current situation?
Raúl Castro is seen as the true power behind the scenes, functioning like a monarch and supported by the military-business elite, the Armed Forces, and the Ministry of the Interior's security forces.