Cuban musicologist and essayist Carlos Olivares Baró expressed in an interview with Tania Costa that the Cuban regime "will not relinquish power through any negotiation" and that "the only way for this 67-year-old dictatorship to give up power is by taking it away." He shared these views following the recent meeting between the CIA director and high-ranking Cuban officials held on May 14 in Havana.
Olivares, born in Guantánamo in 1950 and living in exile in Mexico for around forty years, acknowledged that the meeting between John Ratcliffe, CIA Director, and Ramón Romero Curbelo, head of intelligence at the Ministry of the Interior (MININT), "offers some hope" and is "crucial," but he emphasized that no negotiation will be sufficient to unseat the military leadership from power. Despite this, he yearns to see "a free Guantánamo" before his passing, although he fears it might not happen anytime soon.
The Call for U.S. Intervention
Regarding the potential U.S. military intervention in Cuba, which Olivares deems necessary, he clarifies that "the aggression wouldn't target the Cuban people, but rather the dictatorship, the leaders themselves."
He specified that he envisions a "surgical" action, similar to what was attempted against Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela. "We need to address it and be done with it. It needs to happen now," he insisted.
Personal Longings and Political Realities
In the latter part of his interview with CiberCuba, Olivares shifted from political analysis to personal sentiments. "Cuba pains me. I cry and cry with anger. It hurts," he admitted, revealing his deep-seated wish at 76 years old.
"Before I die, I wish to walk the streets of Guantánamo, reminisce about my childhood, and visit the sea, see the roads where I ran. But I can't do it. I can't because I'm 76, and I don't know if time will allow me to return to my birthland in Guantánamo."
Hope and Skepticism About Cuba's Future
Olivares envisions a future for Cuba devoid of military dominance, without the GAESA conglomerate that has profited at the Cuban people's expense. "I dream of a democratic Cuba," he expressed, though he is uncertain if he will live to see it.
When Costa queried if change could be imminent, Olivares was blunt: "I don't think so. The path to a free Cuba will be slow, but it will happen. I would say it will be gradual."
Despite his short-term pessimism, Olivares placed hope in the current U.S. political climate. "Trump's era is pivotal for Cubans. With Trump, change is possible, yet his presidency is nearing its end," he noted, suggesting Marco Rubio might maintain such pressure. "If Rubio wins the elections, it would be a significant indicator." He clarified his political stance, "I'm not a Trump supporter, but I feel hopeful about his administration's actions."
The interview occurred a day after Ratcliffe's trip to Havana to meet with Cuba's Interior Minister, Lázaro Álvarez Casas, and Romero Curbelo, marking a rare high-level engagement between the two nations. At the time, Cuba was grappling with a severe energy crisis, having exhausted its diesel and fuel oil supplies, and Washington set "fundamental changes" by the Cuban regime as a prerequisite for any progress in dialogue.
Olivares concluded with the same firmness he began: the regime won't yield willingly, and time—for both him and Cuba—is running out.
Key Questions on Cuba's Political Future
Why does Carlos Olivares believe negotiations won't lead to change in Cuba?
Olivares believes that the Cuban regime is too entrenched in power and that negotiations alone will not be sufficient to remove the military leadership.
What type of intervention does Olivares suggest for Cuba?
Olivares suggests a "surgical" military intervention targeting the leaders of the dictatorship, similar to actions taken against Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela.
How does Olivares feel about his personal connection to Cuba?
Olivares expresses a deep emotional pain for Cuba, longing to revisit his childhood places in Guantánamo but feeling uncertain if he will have the opportunity at his age.
What role does Olivares see for U.S. political figures in Cuba's future?
Olivares views the Trump administration as critical for potential change in Cuba and sees Marco Rubio as a potential figure to continue exerting necessary pressure on the Cuban regime.