A fresh round of rapprochement between the United States and Cuba is quietly unfolding, with carefully orchestrated public signals and negotiations that, according to experts, are more extensive than what is publicly acknowledged.
Roberto Veiga, a legal and political analyst and director of Cuba Próxima, evaluated an interview given by Miguel Díaz-Canel to Brazilian journalist Breno Altman, founder of Opera Mundi, and shared his insights with CiberCuba.
Veiga was unequivocal: "This interview is part of the negotiation process ongoing between the Plaza de la Revolución and the White House."
He cautioned that appearances can be deceptive: "They claim discussions are in preliminary stages, but negotiations typically progress further than stated."
The choice of Opera Mundi as a channel is no coincidence. The Brazilian left-leaning outlet, with privileged access to Havana, illustrates the Cuban regime's tradition of using ideologically aligned intermediaries to send diplomatic signals without formally committing to their political base.
The Echoes of the Obama-Castro Thaw
The parallels with the Obama-Castro thaw are unavoidable. That detente, announced on December 17, 2014, included restoring diplomatic relations, reopening embassies, and Obama's historic visit to Havana in March 2016.
However, it failed to bring about real political change: the regime did not liberalize, elections were absent, and repression persisted. The arrival of Trump in 2017 rolled back much of these measures.
Negotiations Beyond the Surface
The most significant structural difference in 2026 is that Washington is negotiating directly with the Castro family, rather than the formal government.
A revealing element of the real level of discussions was a separate meeting on April 10 between a senior State Department official and Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro—Raúl Castro's grandson, known as "el Cangrejo"—confirmed by both Washington and the Cuban Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
At 41, Rodríguez Castro holds no official government position but serves as a trusted confidant to his grandfather.
Milestones in the New Thaw
April 10 also marked another milestone: the first U.S. government flight to Havana since 2016, carrying a State Department delegation for discussions with Cuban officials described as "serious, respectful, and professional" by Alejandro García del Toro, the MINREX's deputy director general for the United States.
Since February 2026, Rodríguez Castro has engaged in unexpectedly friendly exchanges with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and in April, he sent a secret letter to Trump through businessman Roberto Carlos Chamizo González, proposing economic agreements and the lifting of sanctions.
Economic and Political Implications
The U.S. plan, as reported by Bloomberg, aims for a "Cubastroika": transforming Cuba into a financially dependent country on the U.S. without military intervention, involving sanction relief, tourism openings, and agreements in ports and energy.
Washington's concrete demands include the release of political prisoners like Luis Manuel Otero Alcántara and Maykel Osorbo, compensation for confiscated properties, internet access via Starlink, and lifting political restrictions.
This 2.0 thaw occurs amidst Cuba's extreme weakness: GDP fell by 5% in 2025, the peso devalued by 47.8% in a year—from 345 to 510 pesos per dollar—and the GDP per capita is just $1,082.8, the lowest in Latin America.
Veiga also noted a shift in Díaz-Canel's body language as a possible indicator that some decisions have already been made.
"The decision to align with the Castro family and the White House's course suggests he is already involved. Some decisions have been made, he knows what's coming, and believes he can manage it. He is minimally empowered in the process."
Nonetheless, Díaz-Canel made the regime's stance clear in his Opera Mundi interview: he is open to dialogue "as long as it is based on respect for our sovereignty and independence."
Key Questions about the U.S.-Cuba Thaw 2.0
What are the current U.S. demands from Cuba in the new thaw?
The U.S. demands include the release of political prisoners, compensation for confiscated properties, internet access via Starlink, and lifting political restrictions.
How does the current situation compare to the Obama-Castro thaw?
While the Obama-Castro thaw restored diplomatic relations and opened embassies, it failed to enact real political changes. The current negotiations involve direct talks with the Castro family and aim for significant economic and political shifts.