Despite the Democratic win in the November 3 legislative elections, analysts interviewed by AP agree that Cuba will continue to be a key focus for the Trump administration during the remaining two years of his term. The shift in congressional power is unlikely to significantly alter the policy of maximum pressure against the island.
A decisive indication came just 48 hours after the elections: Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a new set of sanctions against the Cuban regime. These included targeting eight entities, two individuals, and blocking five vessels.
Among those sanctioned is Guillermo Faustino Rodríguez López-Calleja, brother of the late General Luis Alberto Rodríguez López-Calleja, due to his involvement in a network of shipping companies engaged in transporting Cuban crude oil.
Experts suggest that while the Democratic Congress—set to take control on January 3, 2027—will have oversight tools like hearings and investigations, they will not be able to reverse executive sanctions or lift the embargo, which requires legislative action under the Helms-Burton Act.
Christopher Sabatini from Chatham House foresees that Democrats will push for hearings on oil agreements with Venezuela and press for elections there. However, he does not expect a significant easing of pressure on Cuba.
Professor Orlando J. Pérez from the University of North Texas offers additional insight into Rubio's motivations: "A Secretary of State with presidential ambitions has every incentive to seek quick results in Cuba."
José Briceño, a professor at the Center for Research on Latin America and the Caribbean in Mexico, considers a military operation against the island "unlikely due to its complexity and risks," though he cautions against completely ruling it out.
Trump himself drew a parallel between the Cuban regime's ideology and the Democratic Party during a White House briefing on Monday, labeling Cuba "a failing nation" and predicting it would "fall quite soon."
Meanwhile, Rubio, speaking from Paris where he was attending the G7 foreign ministers' meeting, reiterated that Washington would do "everything it can" to guide Cuba towards a better future, contingent on the regime realizing that its current path has no future.
Miguel Díaz-Canel responded defiantly on Tuesday, dismissing any interference: "Cuba's future will never be decided to the north."
Another sign of policy consistency was the appointment of Stephen Miller—the chief architect of Trump's hardline immigration stance—as the new White House Chief of Staff, a role he assumed on Monday.
In August, Rubio had already warned that Cuba was on an "irreversible path to a very different future" before the end of the Trump administration, citing Poland as a model for a three-to-five-year transition.
Since January 2026, the administration has executed over two dozen rounds of sanctions against the regime, impacting more than 40 entities and at least 38 individuals connected to Cuba's military-business complex, including GAESA and CUPET.
Cuba's Political Landscape and U.S. Sanctions
What are the new sanctions announced by Marco Rubio?
The new sanctions target eight entities, two individuals, and block five vessels associated with the Cuban regime.
Can the Democratic Congress reverse the Trump administration's sanctions on Cuba?
No, the Democratic Congress will have oversight tools like hearings, but cannot reverse executive sanctions or lift the embargo without legislative action under the Helms-Burton Act.
How has the Trump administration compared the Cuban regime to the Democratic Party?
Trump has likened the ideology of the Cuban regime to that of the Democratic Party, calling Cuba a "failing nation" with a bleak future.