Cuban Regime Cheers on Trump's "Lame Duck" Status: Could Waiting Two Years Be Their Biggest Gamble?

The Republican loss in the November 3 legislative elections has handed the Cuban regime's propaganda machine a new narrative to bolster its resistance strategy: Donald Trump, now seen as a "lame duck," is a weakened president losing political influence and struggling to advance his agenda.

This perspective is presented by Razones de Cuba, a platform linked to the State Security, in an article by Javier López. López interprets the U.S. electoral setback as a sign of diminished pressure on Havana.

"More political and media noise, less strategic effectiveness," asserts the author, convinced that while Trump might ramp up sanctions and threats, these actions are unlikely to yield significant political results.

This conclusion aligns with the regime's expectations: Washington appears to be losing strength, time favors Havana, and holding out remains the best strategy.

Misjudging Trump's Remaining Power

López seems to misunderstand the loss of political clout as a strategic incapacity that facts do not support.

It's true that Trump faces new challenges after losing both houses of Congress. Democrats can scrutinize his decisions, obstruct legislative initiatives, and raise the political cost of any military operations.

However, the president retains broad executive powers over sanctions, national security, and foreign policy. Just two days post-election, Washington announced new sanctions targeting eight entities and two individuals linked to the Cuban regime, also designating five vessels as blocked property.

Underestimating the U.S. Hemispheric Strategy

The Razones de Cuba article downplays a crucial aspect: the new U.S. hemispheric strategy, military preparations assessed during 2026, and the precedent set by the operation leading to Nicolás Maduro's capture in Venezuela.

These developments don't imply a planned military intervention in Cuba by Trump, nor do they ensure his objectives will be met. Describing his actions as mere propaganda to mask weakness is a biased and weakly supported interpretation.

The High Cost of Resistance

The narrative echoes rhetoric used months earlier by propagandist Ana Hurtado, who labeled CBS News reports on U.S. military preparations concerning Cuba as "psychological warfare."

Currently, Razones de Cuba employs a seemingly more sophisticated explanation to project a similar sense of calm: Trump may continue exerting pressure, but his efforts would become increasingly ineffective.

This message surfaces on a platform that, according to its own institutional introduction, was created in 2010 by the Cuban leadership and initially featured testimonials from State Security infiltrators.

Its article aligns with an editorial stance committed to defending Cuba's political system, offering a convenient narrative for those betting on outlasting the current U.S. president.

Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla has openly supported the strategy of enduring until Washington alters its approach. The Democratic victory seems to bolster that expectation.

Yet, the regime risks viewing Trump's electoral weakening as a survival guarantee, overlooking the fact he still has more than two years in office.

Cuban-American historian Michael J. Bustamante recently warned that while waiting might be a strategy for the regime, the costs keep piling up for the population.

That's the glaring omission in the official analysis: while leadership calculates how long they can hold out, millions of Cubans endure blackouts, shortages, inflation, and deteriorating living conditions.

U.S. sanctions have economic impacts, but they don't absolve the regime of responsibility for decades of failed policies, stagnation, and lack of substantial political reforms.

There's also a revealing paradox: Cuban propaganda celebrates Trump's weakening due to competitive elections while defending a system where citizens can't freely challenge the Communist Party's power.

Trump has a constitutional exit date from the White House. Cuban leaders, however, continue betting on resistance without offering the population a democratic alternative to decide their future.

Havana might hope for Trump's failure, but there's no assurance that waiting for his downfall will solve anything.

If, two years from now, the regime manages to survive politically but Cuba remains mired in poverty and emigration, who will truly have won that battle of endurance?