The Democratic victory in the November 3 legislative elections does not necessarily signal a reduction in Donald Trump's pressure on Cuba, nor does it rule out the possibility of an escalation.
This is the perspective of Cuban-American historian Michael J. Bustamante, a professor at the University of Miami. He argues that the new political landscape in the United States presents conflicting possibilities for the island's future.
In an extensive analysis shared on X on Wednesday, Bustamante examined the implications of the Democratic win, which according to Associated Press projections, will grant the party control of both Congressional chambers starting January 3, 2027.
Bustamante, who holds a Ph.D. in History from Yale University, is an associate professor and chair of the Emilio Bacardí Moreau Chair in Cuban and Cuban-American Studies at the University of Miami. He authored "Cuban Memory Wars: Retrospective Politics in Revolution and Exile" (2021) and is an expert on the history of relations between Cuba, the United States, and the Cuban exile community.
His insights into current Cuban affairs have been previously reported by CiberCuba. In May, alongside analyst Ricardo Herrero, he warned that Havana needed to negotiate a resolution to the crisis before U.S. pressure led to more severe consequences.
In August, he penned an opinion piece for The New York Times, cautioning that the Cuban people couldn't wait forever.
Facing the new balance of power in Washington, Bustamante admits that "the immediate implications are far from clear."
Examining the Role of a Democratic Congress
One potential scenario Bustamante considers is that the new Congress might scrutinize the policy of maximum pressure on Cuba more closely, hold hearings, and demand explanations regarding its humanitarian costs, especially given the lack of significant political concessions from Miguel Díaz-Canel's government.
Nevertheless, Bustamante cautions that the Democrats will have numerous legislative and political priorities, including investigations into the Trump administration, which could push Cuba down their agenda.
A key limitation of this potential oversight is that much of the U.S. sanctions are managed by the Executive branch through presidential orders and decisions from departments like the Treasury.
While Congress retains crucial legislative, budgetary, and oversight powers, laws like Helms-Burton condition the complete lifting of the embargo. But Trump has vast authority to tighten existing restrictions and introduce new measures against entities and individuals linked to the Cuban regime.
Therefore, Bustamante believes that the maximum pressure policy could persist and even intensify during Trump's last two years in office.
Rubio’s Influence and the Potential for Escalation
Just two days post-election, the continuation of pressure tactics was evident. On November 5, the Trump administration announced new sanctions targeting eight entities and two individuals connected to Cuba's economic and military apparatus, along with identifying five vessels as blocked assets.
Marco Rubio, Secretary of State, asserted that Washington would not stand by while Cuba's military elite continued to benefit from the nation's economic resources.
Bustamante also considers Rubio's political aspirations and the chance it presents for him to achieve tangible results in Cuba before the end of the presidential term.
However, he warns that a larger-scale escalation would need to yield quick and decisive results to be politically advantageous, a challenging feat while the U.S. is involved in the conflict with Iran and handling the aftermath of its military operation in Venezuela.
Thus, the election outcome doesn't imply that Washington will soften its strategy, nor does it make a more decisive intervention inevitable.
Cuba's Strategy of Endurance
From the Cuban regime's viewpoint, the Democratic victory might bolster a long-held strategy: enduring external pressure until political circumstances in the U.S. shift.
Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla recently articulated this stance to The New York Times, asserting that Cuba would withstand the pressure for as long as necessary, confident that U.S. policy would eventually change.
The Cuban leadership aims to outlast Trump politically, hoping that his administration's wear and tear, international challenges, and the new Congress will eventually weaken the pressure strategy.
But Bustamante questions the cost of this wait for Cuban society.
"Waiting might be a strategy for the Cuban government, but it offers little to the Cuban people. And there are still two years of sanctions under executive control. The Cubans have already paid a tremendous price," he noted.
In his assessment, the political hurdles facing Washington could lead to stagnation rather than a decisive escalation. However, this paralysis wouldn't necessarily bring relief to the population or resolve Cuba's structural issues.
The Democratic victory could provide the regime with a new excuse to prolong its resistance strategy, without necessarily advancing internal reforms or improving Cubans' living conditions.
The historian sums up the primary risk of this scenario: "The costs of simply waiting continue to accumulate."
Key Questions on U.S.-Cuba Relations and Political Implications
What impact does a Democratic Congress have on U.S. policy towards Cuba?
A Democratic Congress might scrutinize the current U.S. policy of pressure on Cuba, potentially holding hearings and demanding explanations of its humanitarian impacts. However, it may not prioritize Cuba due to other pressing legislative and political issues.
Can the U.S. Congress lift the embargo on Cuba?
While Congress holds legislative power, the complete lifting of the embargo is complicated by laws like Helms-Burton. Much of the sanctions are managed by the Executive branch, meaning significant changes would require presidential cooperation.
What are the potential consequences of continued U.S. pressure on Cuba?
Continued U.S. pressure could lead to escalated sanctions, impacting Cuba's economy and society. The Cuban government may continue to resist, relying on changing U.S. political dynamics, but this strategy offers little relief to the Cuban people.