Once again, Donald Trump has referenced the Venezuelan situation as a potential template for addressing the Cuban regime. During a Friday interview with journalist Benny Johnson, the president asserted that conditions in Cuba "won't last much longer," hinting at the significant precedent: "Look at what we did with Venezuela."
This statement alludes to the January 3rd military operation in which U.S. forces captured Nicolás Maduro in Caracas. However, it contrasts with other statements from Trump and his administration, who have vacillated between dismissing similar interventions and suggesting all options remain available.
Just days earlier, on October 26th, Marco Rubio stated that Cuba is a "completely different case" than Venezuela but did not elaborate on the differences, only noting that the island requires "a very drastic change."
Trump’s latest comments position the Venezuelan operation as an example of what the United States can achieve, asserting that the Cuban issue will be resolved before the end of his term.
Shifting Stance on Military Intervention
Presidential statements have shown a particularly erratic trajectory regarding potential interventions.
In March, Trump explicitly ruled out a military operation in Cuba, telling the Washington Examiner, "That's not going to happen." However, by June, when asked by Axios about the possibility of replicating the Maduro capture in Cuba, he responded, "Possibly. It's possible."
A month later, in an interview with Fox News, Trump distanced himself from the Venezuelan scenario, saying, "I don't see it being like Venezuela," but added that the U.S. could act and it "wouldn't be difficult."
Other government members have also shown ambivalence. In June, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth did not rule out a capture or elimination operation against Miguel Díaz-Canel, noting the Pentagon has options for various scenarios.
By September, Rubio reiterated that Washington preferred a negotiated solution without military force but did not rule it out if national security was threatened.
In August, Bloomberg reported, citing sources familiar with U.S. strategy, that the White House had deprioritized military options in favor of sanctions and economic pressure.
The Broader Implications of the Venezuelan Precedent
The comparison deepens when considering how Maduro's capture unfolded. The January 3rd operation followed years of investigations, legal charges, sanctions, negotiations, and intelligence operations.
Since 2020, Maduro faced U.S. federal charges for narcoterrorism and drug trafficking-related crimes. By August 2025, Washington had increased the reward for information leading to his arrest or conviction to $50 million.
Comparable pressure tactics are emerging in Cuba, though with notable legal and political differences.
In May, the U.S. Department of Justice filed a federal indictment against Raúl Castro and five former military officers for the 1996 shooting down of two Brothers to the Rescue planes. On October 16th, a Florida judge issued a state arrest warrant for the former Cuban leader, announced publicly three days later.
These actions are accompanied by new sanctions on entities and figures linked to Cuban power, along with intensified U.S. intelligence activities. However, no reward for Raúl Castro comparable to Maduro's has been announced, nor do the charges against them stem from the same crimes.
The CIA, led by John Ratcliffe, plays a central role in this strategy. According to reports by CBS News and CiberCuba, Ratcliffe brought a participant from the operation against Maduro to Havana during his meetings with high-ranking Cuban officials in May.
Most recently, the agency and Rubio publicly urged Cubans to discreetly cooperate with U.S. intelligence services.
Meanwhile, Havana has not ignored the Venezuelan precedent. In September, the head of the regime's Personal Security publicly discussed how their forces would respond if the U.S. attempted to capture or eliminate any of their key leaders. On October 21st, Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla avoided directly answering when an Associated Press journalist asked if the arrest warrant against Raúl Castro could lead to a scenario similar to Venezuela's.
Trump's latest remarks come after a series of actions that go beyond verbal threats. However, none indicate a decision to execute a capture operation in Cuba.
The question is whether the president is foreshadowing a strategic shift or using the memory of Maduro to increase pressure on a Cuban leadership well aware of the consequences of that operation: 32 of their forces died trying to protect the Venezuelan leader.
For now, Trump has not disclosed how he plans to achieve the outcome he predicts for Cuba. But he also seems uninterested in clarifying whether he is prepared to repeat the events in Caracas.
FAQs on US-Cuba Relations and Potential Actions
What did Trump say about the situation in Cuba?
Trump stated that the situation in Cuba "won't last much longer" and suggested looking at the U.S. actions in Venezuela as a precedent.
Has the U.S. government decided on military action against Cuba?
As of now, there is no public evidence that the U.S. has decided to take military action against Cuba, although options remain on the table.
How does the Venezuelan operation relate to Cuba?
The Venezuelan operation is being used as a potential model for action against Cuba, though the circumstances and legal contexts differ significantly.