The Electric Union (UNE) of Cuba has released a report dated October 31, forecasting a power shortfall of 1,810 MW during peak hours this Saturday. With only 1,020 MW available against an anticipated demand of 2,800 MW, the estimated deficit stands at 1,780 MW.
This projection contrasts with the situation on Friday, October 30, when the maximum power shortfall hit 2,039 MW at 7:20 p.m. Power interruptions due to capacity deficits persisted throughout the 24-hour period and continued into the early hours.
As of 6:00 a.m. this Saturday, the National Electric System (SEN) reported 900 MW available to meet a demand of 2,343 MW, resulting in a current outage of 1,437 MW.
Midday Power Outlook
For midday, UNE predicts a power shortfall of 1,550 MW. These figures are based on projected conditions and are not guaranteed outcomes.
Although there is a slight improvement compared to Friday—180 MW less in anticipated outages and 180 MW more in available power—the crisis remains severe. The available generation for peak demand barely covers 36% of the expected maximum demand.
Impact of CTE Antonio Guiteras Synchronization
A key factor influencing this forecast is the synchronization of the CTE Antonio Guiteras with the SEN at 1:23 a.m. on Saturday. However, the report only anticipates an additional 40 MW at peak, indicating that the plant is still in a gradual ramp-up phase rather than full operation.
The Guiteras, Cuba's largest thermoelectric plant with a nominal capacity of 316 MW located in Matanzas, experienced its fifth breakdown of October on the 27th, due to low vacuum in the condenser. An inspection revealed three simultaneous cracks in the boiler: within the low-temperature superheater, the header, and the high-temperature reheater.
Additional Plant Operations and Maintenance
The report also mentions that unit 6 of the CTE Nuevitas is expected to contribute 80 MW to the peak supply. Meanwhile, four units across Renté, Nuevitas, and Santa Cruz are undergoing maintenance. Also listed are outages at four blocks in Santa Cruz, Felton, Nuevitas, and Renté, contributing to thermal generation limitations totaling 668 MW.
On Friday, photovoltaic solar farms produced 4,304 MWh, achieving a maximum power of 544 MW at midday, which falls short of offsetting the structural generation deficit.
Persistent Power Struggles in October
The electrical situation has been particularly dire this month. The VC100 circuit in Arroyo Naranjo, Havana, experienced over 64 hours of continuous power outages as of October 30. Meanwhile, the Cienfuegos Electric Company acknowledged that power cut durations ranged between 70 and 89 hours, with no ability to adhere to scheduled rotations.
The worst day recorded this month was October 2, with 2,130 MW affected, and power outages due to generation deficits have stretched beyond 24 hours in multiple areas.
Understanding Cuba's Power Crisis
What is the current power deficit in Cuba?
Cuba is currently facing a power shortfall of 1,810 MW during peak demand times, with only 1,020 MW available to meet an expected demand of 2,800 MW.
How did the synchronization of CTE Antonio Guiteras impact the power supply?
The synchronization of CTE Antonio Guiteras contributed an additional 40 MW at peak times, but the plant is still in a gradual loading phase, not yet fully operational.
How have solar power contributions affected Cuba's power deficit?
On Friday, solar farms produced 4,304 MWh with a peak capacity of 544 MW, which is insufficient to compensate for the overall generation deficit.