Amidst a week of diplomatic tensions between Cuba and the United States at the United Nations, CiberCuba's panel discussion tackled a long-standing question: who should spearhead change in Cuba, Washington or the Cuban people themselves?
This debate emerged following Cuba's worst outcome in three decades regarding the UN vote on the embargo: 130 votes in favor, 17 against, and 25 abstentions, compared to 165 in 2025 and 187 in 2024.
Cuban-American writer and analyst Frank Rodríguez acknowledged that Cuba poses a genuine threat to U.S. national security, yet he cautioned against relying solely on Washington. "The United States will act when it wants, how it wants, and with whomever it wants... It might end in a political structure we like, perhaps a democracy, a puppet government, or a protectorate; history is full of such examples."
Rodríguez's main argument highlights the instability of depending on a foreign policy that shifts with each administration. "If we lose the elections and a president like Obama takes office, we could revert to 2015, facing 191 votes against the embargo decision again."
In contrast, activist Manuel Milanés agreed that Cuba is a problem for U.S. interests but stressed a deeper dimension. "As a Cuban, it affects me because it's my country, my land; it's where I want to die, where I was born, where I want to be, and where I don't want communists to be."
His conclusion was clear-cut: "We must do it ourselves."
Both panelists concurred that both dimensions are real and not mutually exclusive, but they differ in emphasis: Washington having strategic interests in Cuba is one thing, while Cubans surrendering their liberation to a foreign power is quite another.
The debate gained more weight due to recent events: the expulsion of Cuban diplomat Richard Tur de la Concepción after assaulting the U.S. spokesperson at the UN, Ambassador Mike Waltz displaying images of Cayo Piedra and Rolex watches linked to Fidel Castro, and Marco Rubio's public call for Cubans to discreetly collaborate with the CIA.
This last point sparked particular controversy in the discussion: if Washington labels Cuba a threat to its national security—as the State Department did in a nearly 100-page report released in July—and then calls on Cubans to act, what happens if the policy shifts with the next U.S. president?
Frank Rodríguez summed it up with a vivid image: you can't ask a farmer from Immokalee to send her son to fight against communism in Cuba when Cubans themselves aren't willing to bear that cost.
Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla dismissed Rubio's call for collaboration with the CIA as "unserious and childish," as reported by Cuban state media. Analysts interpreted this as a sign of the regime's discomfort with an offensive that, despite its contradictions, is eroding international support for Havana.
Key Issues Surrounding Cuba's Political Future
Why is Cuba considered a national security issue for the United States?
Cuba is viewed as a national security concern due to its proximity to the United States, its historical ties with adversaries, and its potential influence on regional stability and migration patterns.
What are the main challenges in relying on U.S. foreign policy for Cuban change?
The main challenges include the volatility of U.S. foreign policy, which can change with each presidential administration, and the risk of Cubans losing agency over their own political future.
How do recent diplomatic incidents affect Cuba's international standing?
Recent incidents, such as the expulsion of a Cuban diplomat and calls for Cuban collaboration with the CIA, have intensified scrutiny on Cuba and may undermine its international support.