The Cuban government is banking on weathering the pressure from the Trump administration, anticipating that a potential Republican defeat in the upcoming midterm elections on November 3 might reduce Cuba's priority on Washington's agenda. Meanwhile, the island's inhabitants are enduring a crisis that cannot afford to wait.
This situation is analyzed by CNN's correspondent in Havana, Patrick Oppmann, in a report released this Wednesday.
Havana's strategy remains unchanged: endure and wait for the next administration. Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla stated clearly, "I am convinced that U.S. policies must change. With this government, the next one, or the one after."
According to officials cited privately by Oppmann, there is hope that if Trump remains embroiled in the conflict with Iran and Republicans lose the upcoming elections, regime change in Cuba might drop down the list of priorities.
This bet by the regime comes amid an unprecedented week of diplomatic escalation. Trump threatened, during a rally in Fort Myers, Florida, to station a warship off the Cuban coast upon returning from Iran.
Rodríguez had an altercation with Ambassador Mike Waltz at the UN on Tuesday when he attempted to interrupt Waltz's speech, to which the ambassador retorted from the podium, "Step away, this is not Havana." The following day, the U.S. expelled Cuban diplomat Richard Tur de la Concepción, accusing him of assaulting an American official during the incident.
Washington demands Havana open its political and economic systems, allow the return and investment of exiles, and sever its ties with Russia and China.
Simultaneously, Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a direct call on X to recruit collaborators within the regime: "To those seeking positive change in Cuba: this is the moment. Take this opportunity to make the change you desire through discreet collaboration with the CIA."
The Deputy Foreign Minister, Carlos Fernández de Cossío, responded sarcastically, "Now the U.S. resorts to public recruitment ads. There must be a lot of desperation and poverty in the agency's ranks if they have to sell their offers like toothpaste."
While the dictatorship navigates international forums, the contrast within the island is stark. Oppmann describes a gourmet store in Havana, open to the elites, selling wagyu beef, Russian caviar, and Spanish olive oil at prices equivalent to about ten times the average monthly salary.
A Cuban who entered the store looked at the price of a piece of frozen meat and asked the clerk, "That price can't be right, can it?"
On the other hand, retirees like Armando Ruiz queue three hours before the bank opens to collect a pension of 3,900 pesos a month, less than five dollars on the informal exchange, which reached a historic high of 850 pesos per dollar this Wednesday. "It only covers a little food," Ruiz told CNN. "Sometimes you wonder: how long can this continue?"
The regime has announced reforms and acknowledged for the first time that Cubans can accumulate wealth, but most of the population claims that only those with the right connections within the system manage to benefit.
It's no longer unusual to see women with children begging at traffic lights while new Audis and Teslas pass by, an image unimaginable just a few years ago.
According to the FIU Cuba Poll 2026, released Tuesday, 77% of Cuban-Americans in Miami-Dade support the maximum pressure policy on Havana, and 68% will vote Republican next Tuesday, suggesting that the support base for this strategy remains strong as the Cuban regime closely observes the upcoming elections.
Key Questions on the Cuban Crisis and U.S. Policy
What is the Cuban regime's strategy regarding the Trump administration?
The Cuban regime's strategy is to resist the pressure from the Trump administration and wait for a potential change in U.S. policy following the midterm elections.
How are ordinary Cubans affected by the current crisis?
Ordinary Cubans are experiencing severe economic hardship, with many struggling to afford basic necessities as inflation and currency devaluation take their toll.
What actions has the U.S. taken against the Cuban regime recently?
The U.S. has escalated diplomatic tensions, including expelling a Cuban diplomat and threatening military presence, while demanding political and economic reforms from Havana.