Cuban Leader Congratulates Lula on Electoral Win, Extends Support to Brazil

On Sunday, Miguel Díaz-Canel took to social media to extend congratulations to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for his significant victory in Brazil's presidential runoff. Díaz-Canel hailed the election outcome as a "monumental triumph" for the Brazilian people and pledged the Cuban government's support to the leftist leader.

"Dear brother Lula, on behalf of the Cuban government and its people, I commend you for this historic achievement, which ensures the continuation of the journey towards peace, sovereignty, and social justice embarked upon by the Brazilian people under your leadership. Brazil can rely on Cuba as we work towards the unity and integration of our Great Homeland, Latin America and the Caribbean," the Cuban leader expressed.

At 80 years old, Lula achieved a remarkable comeback in the October 25 runoff, securing 51.78% of the votes against Flávio Bolsonaro's 48.22%, as reported by the Superior Electoral Court with 99.99% of votes counted. Lula's lead surpassed four million votes, marking a significant turnaround from the first round. This achievement is unprecedented since the constitutional reform of 1988, which established the current electoral system.

With this victory, Lula commences his fourth term as president. During the initial round on October 4, Flávio Bolsonaro led with 47.06% compared to Lula's 45.13%, a difference of approximately 2.3 million votes. The key to Lula's resurgence was Minas Gerais, Brazil's second-largest electoral district, where he overturned a first-round defeat to win over 50% in the runoff.

Implications for Cuba

The election results carry direct consequences for Havana. Under the current Brazilian administration, Brazil has become a crucial South American ally for Cuba. In March, Brazil announced the shipment of around 20,800 tons of essential food supplies—rice, black beans, and powdered milk—through the World Food Program. Additionally, in May, they donated medications to treat nearly 1,000 Cuban patients.

In July, 48 tons of powdered milk were delivered to Santiago de Cuba aboard Brazilian Air Force flights. A victory for Flávio Bolsonaro would have meant a return to the policies of his father, who, during his presidency (2019-2022), broke Brazil's tradition of voting against the embargo on Cuba at the UN, minimized diplomatic ties in Havana, and prompted the withdrawal of Cuban doctors from the Mais Médicos program.

However, Díaz-Canel's congratulatory message did not address the underlying tensions in bilateral relations. Cuba owes Brazil $676 million related to loans from the National Bank for Economic and Social Development for the Mariel Port construction, with payments defaulted since May 2018. Lula's own legislation, enacted in March, bars new loans to countries with delinquent debts, effectively excluding Cuba from future financial aid. Furthermore, nearly 17,000 Cubans sought asylum in Brazil between January and May of 2026, reflecting the exodus driven by Cuba's ongoing crisis.

Regional Reactions and Political Implications

Díaz-Canel joins a chorus of left-wing Latin American leaders who have celebrated the outcome. Former Colombian President Gustavo Petro remarked on social media, "Fascism in Latin America has been halted in Brazil." Meanwhile, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum applauded the result, stating, "Long live democracy, the people of Brazil have won. Congratulations, President Lula!" Argentine ex-President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner likened the election day to a "true October 17 electoral event," referencing a significant date in Peronism.

In contrast, from Washington, Donald Trump offered a brief comment on the election, saying, "I don't want to get into that, but we're watching."

Cuba's ambassador to Brazil, Víctor Manuel Cairo Palomo, had previously indicated Havana's stance regardless of the election outcome. When questioned about a potential win by Flávio Bolsonaro, the diplomat affirmed, "Our historical ties are much stronger than any specific issue."

Earlier in October, entities linked to the Cuban regime issued a manifesto in open support of Lula, accusing the United States and Israel of funding Brazilian opposition.