On Sunday, U.S. President Donald Trump shared his thoughts on the upcoming presidential runoff in Brazil with a noncommittal statement: "I don't want to get into that matter, but we're keeping an eye on it," he told reporters at the White House.
This remark came as over 158 million Brazilian voters were set to choose between the incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party. Polls indicated a neck-and-neck race.
According to the latest surveys by Datafolha and Quaest, Flávio Bolsonaro held a slight lead with 51% over Lula’s 49%, within a margin of error of two percentage points.
While Trump refrained from formally endorsing any candidate, he has been openly monitoring the Brazilian electoral process for weeks.
Earlier in October, the U.S. leader stated he was closely watching the elections, describing them as "very important."
Following the first round on October 4, where Flávio Bolsonaro secured 47.06% of the votes against Lula's 45.13%—a difference of about 2.3 million votes—Trump called it a "great victory" for Bolsonaro and predicted a "very tight" runoff.
The next day, he took to Truth Social to praise Brazil's electronic voting system, in place since the 1990s, while criticizing the U.S. electoral system as "corrupt."
The ties between Trump and the Bolsonaro camp have historical roots: Flávio Bolsonaro visited the White House on May 26, 2026, meeting with Trump in a rare move for a foreign senator without a head of state position, where he promised to integrate Brazil into the "Shield of the Americas" if elected president.
Flávio is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who was sentenced in September 2025 to 27 years and three months in prison by Brazil's Supreme Federal Court for leading an attempted coup after losing the 2022 election to Lula.
Relations between Washington and Brasília have hit a low point in recent years.
In July 2026, the U.S. imposed 25% tariffs on Brazilian goods under Section 301 of the Trade Act, with an additional 12.5% levy for alleged shortcomings in forced labor control, raising the total tariff burden to 37.5%.
The Lula administration called the move a "regrettable milestone," with the president himself warning Trump against meddling in the electoral process: "The citizens elected Trump to govern the United States, not to impose his will on Brazil," he stated.
A day before the runoff, Reuters reported claims from U.S. officials and former officials of a State Department campaign to support the Bolsonaro clan through diplomatic pressure and economic sanctions, though Washington denied any electoral interference.
As of the latest updates, the official outcome of the second round remained unannounced.
Key Questions About the Brazil Election and U.S. Involvement
What did Trump say about the Brazilian elections?
Trump stated that he was "keeping an eye on" the Brazilian elections, without committing to support any candidate.
Who are the candidates in Brazil's presidential runoff?
The candidates are the current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party.
How has the U.S. government been involved in Brazil's election?
There have been accusations of a campaign within the U.S. State Department to support Bolsonaro through diplomatic pressure and economic sanctions, though these claims have been denied by Washington.