President Donald Trump has not succeeded in reaching his ambitious goal of deporting one million immigrants annually. Despite ramping up immigration enforcement, increasing arrests within the United States, and pouring billions of dollars into enhancing border control during his second term, the target remains elusive.
A report by the Migration Policy Institute (MPI), authored by researcher Marc Rosenblum and released in October 2026, estimates that the U.S. administration was on track for approximately 660,000 deportations in the fiscal year 2026. This figure falls about 34% short of the White House's annual target.
Analysis of Deportation Data
The study explores information from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) accessed through Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests. Between January 20, 2025, and July 31, 2026, around 980,000 deportations were recorded. Although this number is high compared to recent years, it still doesn't meet the promised pace.
According to the research, deportations rose from an annualized rate of 620,000 during Trump's first year to about 660,000 in the fiscal year 2026. This is a 26% increase compared to the average during Joe Biden's administration from fiscal years 2021 to 2024. However, it's not a historical record; in fiscal year 2000, under President Bill Clinton, approximately 1.86 million deportations were reported, far surpassing current estimates.
Challenges and Obstacles
The MPI uses a broad definition of deportations, including formal expulsions and certain returns, which should not be confused solely with deportation orders executed by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
Trump's failure to meet the annual goal is notable because mass deportations are a cornerstone of his immigration policy. The administration has escalated ICE operations and allocated federal resources to locate, detain, and expel unauthorized immigrants.
Despite increased arrests in U.S. cities and communities, the majority of deportees were initially intercepted at the border. Specifically, 69% of the 980,000 deportations during the analyzed period involved immigrants first detained at the border by border control authorities.
Shifts in Deportation Trends
The proportion of deportations linked to arrests within the country has risen significantly. According to Rosenblum, the rate of deportations stemming from domestic arrests increased from 28% in 2025 to 39% by July 2026. The monthly pace of these expulsions also grew, from an average of 8,000 in the early months of Trump's second term to about 19,000 between May and July 2026.
These figures indicate expanded operations against immigrants already residing in the U.S., yet they still fall short of the annual target. Many deported individuals had lived in the country for years, further complicating enforcement due to their established familial, employment, and community ties.
Systemic and Data Challenges
The report highlights systemic challenges in U.S. immigration enforcement, including court backlogs and diverse immigrant nationalities complicating certain expulsions. Obtaining travel documents or other governments' cooperation can further delay deportations.
Another challenge is the availability of official data. The DHS stopped publishing detailed monthly reports comparing ICE and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) detentions and deportations since January 2025, requiring researchers to rely on public information requests and independent data sources.
The administration claims that over three million unauthorized immigrants have left the U.S. since January 2025 through deportations and voluntary departures. However, the MPI doubts this figure pertains solely to undocumented immigrants due to data limitations and potential inclusion of legally residing individuals.
Impact on Cuban Nationals
The deportation policy also affects Cuban nationals directly. An independent estimate suggests approximately 8,500 Cuban citizens were deported during Trump's second term up to August 5, 2026. This figure differs from the 980,000 national deportations analyzed in the MPI study.
Rosenblum emphasized the need for data publication during a period of significant investment in deportation operations. Doris Meissner, Director of the U.S. Migration Policy Program at MPI, noted that the analysis sheds light on the evolution of immigration measures amid heightened public and political focus.
Understanding U.S. Immigration Policy and Deportation Trends
Why did Donald Trump fail to meet his deportation target?
Despite increased enforcement and resources, systemic challenges, data limitations, and the complex nature of U.S. immigration policy hindered the administration's ability to meet its annual deportation target.
What factors contribute to the complexity of U.S. deportation processes?
The complexity arises from court backlogs, diverse immigrant nationalities, the need for travel documents, and cooperation with other governments, all of which can delay or complicate deportations.
How does the MPI define deportations?
The MPI uses a broad definition that includes formal expulsions and certain returns, not limited to deportation orders executed by ICE.