Alina Bárbara López: The Need for Internal Organization and External Support in Cuba

Cuban philosopher and historian Alina Bárbara López Hernández, currently under house arrest in Matanzas, has contributed an essay to the Journal of Democracy at Johns Hopkins University. Her piece delves into the state of Cuban civil society and the realistic prospects for a democratic transition on the island.

In the essay, titled "Cubans Lead from Within," López Hernández argues that social dissatisfaction has moved beyond social media and into the streets. However, she warns of the fragmented nature of activism and the absence of robust structures to support political change.

She observes that Cuban civil society is undergoing a transformation amidst power outages, shortages, and the degradation of public services. Yet, she cautions that mere discontent is not sufficient to ensure a democratic transition.

The professor further explores the evolution of independent activism in Cuba, noting the challenges posed by state repression and the obstacles to turning local protests into a cohesive national movement.

On Facebook, López Hernández explained that the essay was a collaborative effort: she provided the analysis of the Cuban reality, while the final assessment was informed by the editors’ expertise in pro-democracy movements worldwide.

The Impact of Cuba's Crisis on Social Unrest

The author portrays a nation battered by a collapsing energy sector, worsening poverty, and the loss of Venezuelan oil supplies that once supported electricity generation and transportation.

This scenario is compounded by the emigration of lawyers, journalists, organizers, and others whose skills are essential for fostering democratic openness. The departure of these professionals, she notes, hampers the ability of activists within Cuba to establish stable structures and fill leadership voids left by those who leave.

López Hernández points out that the current crisis is not solely due to material hardships. The erosion of living conditions is further exacerbated by decades of civil and political rights restrictions, alongside citizens’ growing ability to access information and challenge the official narrative through the internet.

She identifies three major transformations: dissent is emerging from the digital realm, the Cuban government has lost Venezuela as its main benefactor, and tighter migration restrictions have reduced the potential for emigration to serve as a safety valve. "Cubans now understand they must confront the crisis from within," she asserts.

From Social Media to Street Protests

López Hernández highlights the July 11, 2021 protests as a pivotal moment when thousands took to the streets across the island to voice their grievances.

However, she notes a shift in mobilization tactics. Prolonged blackouts and deteriorating telecommunications infrastructure hinder real-time national coordination, leading many protests to remain localized within neighborhoods and municipalities.

She also points to university protests following the May 30, 2025 increase in internet tariffs. In her view, restricting internet access has driven discontent into public spaces rather than confining it to the digital sphere.

Another significant change, she argues, is that demands now extend beyond basic needs. Alongside calls for electricity, water, food, and medicine, there are explicit appeals for freedom and political change.

As an example, she references recent events in Morón, Ciego de Ávila, where residents set fire to the Communist Party headquarters and engaged in daytime protests, street blockages, trash fires, demonstrations outside government buildings, and graffiti with slogans like "Freedom," "Homeland and Life," and "Down with the Dictatorship."

"People are learning not to wait for permission to demand, inform, organize, and assert their right to participate in public life. (...) Today, it’s unusual to find someone who doesn’t admit, publicly or privately, an urgent desire for change," López Hernández emphasizes. However, she stresses that for this shift to endure, there must be "serious civic education and practice."

Repression's Attempt to Stifle Activism

A central argument of the article is that Cuban civil society persists despite legal restrictions and repression against independent organizations.

Activism has re-emerged, covering a wide range of causes: from defending human rights and documenting abuses against political prisoners to protests over basic services, opposition to compulsory military service, animal rights advocacy, and aid to impoverished or sick families.

"There is often an assumption from the outside that state repression is ideologically motivated, but that’s not the case," clarifies the historian, noting that both critical opinions and potential leaderships or networks that could enable citizen organization are targeted. Mechanisms she describes include pressures to force emigration, restrictions on returning to the country, and movement limitations on those remaining in Cuba.

The Main Challenge: Unity and Organization

While acknowledging the growth of discontent and the courage of protesters, López Hernández warns that the Cuban pro-democracy movement still faces significant weaknesses.

She mentions personal rivalries among opposition figures, a lack of collaboration on common platforms, and difficulties in presenting proposals that resonate with the everyday concerns of the population without being reduced to ideological labels.

There is also a gap between some activists and the communities they aim to represent. Repression, she notes, isolates them from their own environments, while international attention often focuses on figures visible from abroad, leaving less support for those protesting in local neighborhoods.

For López Hernández, the issue is not the absence of ideas for a transition. She cites initiatives and roadmaps developed by organizations such as the Council for Democratic Transition in Cuba, D’Frente, Cuba Próxima, and CubaxCuba Civic Thought Laboratory.

The challenge lies in connecting these proposals with emerging local networks amid the crisis and building a structure capable of sustaining mobilization beyond isolated incidents.

However, she emphasizes that the most crucial aspect of Cuban activism is not the organizations or their actual power. "It’s simpler than that; people are learning to stop asking for permission, to make demands, generate information, organize, and assert their right to participate in public life," she said.

The professor praises the role of citizen journalism and independent media in documenting repression, the decline of healthcare, education, and transportation, as well as the rise in crime and corruption.

"Much remains to be done. Cuba needs people to organize internally and support from outside. But the path has been opened, and what follows may depend less on its breadth than on the level of organization achieved. A society begins to leave totalitarianism behind when it understands that it can think, organize, and act without asking anyone's permission," she expressed.

The Path to Democratic Transition Through Civil Society

In the article's conclusion, López Hernández briefly references international experiences to suggest that democratic transitions require a civil society that has developed connections, organizational capacity, and legitimacy before political openness occurs.

Her comparison emphasizes that the value of activism is not solely about the number of protests or participants' bravery but also its ability to endure over time and represent citizens' demands.

In the Cuban context, she believes that mutual aid networks, daytime protests, and broadening demands to include freedom can form the foundation of a more solid organization.

Nonetheless, she warns that this process demands overcoming fragmentation and establishing connections between existing initiatives and citizens mobilizing in their communities.

López Hernández concludes that Cuba needs both internal organization and external support. The future, she argues, will depend not only on the scope of this process but also on the degree of organization achieved.

Her argument is that democratic change cannot rely solely on a system collapse or negotiations between Cuban authorities and foreign actors. It requires a citizenry capable of articulating its demands, being informed, organizing, and participating in public life without seeking approval from the authorities.

"Much remains to be done. Cuba needs people to organize internally and support from outside. But the path has been opened, and what follows may depend less on its breadth than on the level of organization achieved. A society begins to leave totalitarianism behind when it understands that it can think, organize, and act without asking anyone's permission," she concluded.