Alina Bárbara López: "Cuba Faces a Civilizational Regression, Not Just a Crisis"

Cuban philosopher and historian Alina Bárbara López Hernández recently published an essay titled "Cuba, the Data and the Narrative" in the magazine Letras Libres. In her work, she dismantles the romanticized view of the Cuban Revolution held by some international leftist circles and introduces a new term to describe the current state of the island: "civilizational regression."

This essay emerged from an eye-opening experience. A left-leaning publication invited seven Cuban authors to contribute to a dossier on Cuba. However, after submission, the editor suggested it would be "more practical" to focus only on the achievements of the revolution and highlight the "oil as a weapon of U.S. blockade" as the main cause of Cuba's problems.

The authors rejected this proposal. Anthropologist and researcher Hilda Landrove, another excluded contributor, summed up the situation by stating that the editor wanted them to discuss "a Cuba that doesn't exist because that's the narrative he prefers."

López Hernández, a Ph.D. in Philosophical Sciences and a corresponding member of the Cuban Academy of History, as well as co-director of CubaxCuba, argues that Cuba's crisis is not a recent development nor can it be solely attributed to its differences with Washington. The government took control of the press, culture, and unions even before the American embargo and the Communist Party's reestablishment in 1965.

A Turning Point in 2008

The most drastic shift, according to López Hernández, occurred in 2008 when Raúl Castro officially took over the State Council. From that point on, the government maintained its coercive institutions while systematically slashing social spending. Official figures cited by López Hernández reveal that the budget for social assistance plummeted from 2.2% to 0.3% between 2006 and 2018.

Economist Carmelo Mesa-Lago attributes part of these cuts to the directives of the PCC's Sixth Congress in 2011, which "ended social assistance for those with families capable of supporting them." Between 2016 and 2020, investment in health and social assistance nosedived by two-thirds, from 232.6 million to 84.5 million pesos.

Decline in Human Development

This accumulated decline is reflected in the Human Development Index: Cuba fell 32 spots, from 51st place in 2007 to 83rd in the 2021-2022 biennium. Cuban demographer Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos points out that "such a regression is unprecedented globally."

López Hernández paints a grim picture: "In Cuba, it’s more than a crisis; it’s a civilizational regression: for over six years, the death rate has outpaced the birth rate; the current birth rate is akin to the level in 1899; it ranks second in suicide rates in the region, only behind Uruguay; it has the world's second-highest per capita prison population, after El Salvador; and there is an exodus of dramatic proportions, leading to what Albizu Campos calls 'demographic emptying,' akin to regions ravaged by war…"

Staggering Statistics

The statistics back up this portrayal. In 2024, Cuba recorded 71,358 births compared to 128,098 deaths, according to official numbers from the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI). By 2025, the demographic decline worsened: births dropped to 68,064, while deaths rose to 136,214. In terms of repression, Prisoners Defenders documented 1,372 political prisoners as of October 1, a record number. The most common charge among these cases was "public disorder," applied in 577 instances.

Regarding the 176 economic measures approved in June 2026, López Hernández is unequivocal: they demonstrate that the regime only engages economically when the crisis intensifies, with a "socialist rhetoric, capitalist economy." She also references a statement by Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro — Raúl Castro's grandson — in a USA Today interview, where he suggested that if Trump wanted, "he could lead the process," a statement that no Cuban government spokesperson has refuted.

She concludes with a warning that extends beyond historical analysis: "Under no circumstances should citizens' rights and freedoms be surrendered in exchange for common social rights, because when those social benefits are withdrawn, demanding their return, even through nonviolent means, can provoke the harshest repressive response. To organize and demand social rights from below, one must first have political rights."