In September 2026, Cuba's annual inflation rate hit 28.44%, according to the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI). This figure is nearing the 30% mark, showcasing a persistent upward trend with no signs of slowing. Economist Elías Amor cautioned in an interview with Tania Costa that inflation could surge even higher by the year's end.
"The latest data released by ONEI shows inflation in September nearly at 30% annually, sitting at 28.5%. It's risen dramatically again," noted Amor, who has been closely monitoring the escalating prices in Cuba for months.
Amor offers a grim forecast: "My prediction stands confirmed: barring unforeseen events, Cuba's inflation rate will surpass 35%, potentially reaching between 40% and 45% annually by year-end, which is an utterly unsustainable rate for the Cuban economy."
Rising Inflation Throughout 2026
The inflation rate has been climbing steadily through 2026: starting at 12.52% in January, rising to 20.70% in July, reaching 25.19% in August, and closing September at 28.44%.
The main driver for the September increase was food and non-alcoholic drinks, accounting for 73.39% of the monthly price index rise. Following were restaurants and hotels with a 39.11% annual inflation rate, and alcoholic beverages and tobacco, which saw the highest sectorial increase at 46.71% annually.
Food Prices Out of Control
"Food prices are out of control. This month, restaurants and hotels, where Cubans buy prepared meals, have seen price hikes again. Alcohol and tobacco prices have soared," explained Amor, emphasizing that these products have a significant structural weight in the island's consumption.
Compared to other economies, the situation is dire. "In the United States, Spain, and Europe, we panic over 4% inflation rates, and in Cuba, people are facing price increases seven times higher. I don't know how they manage," the economist expressed.
The Devastating Impact on Incomes
According to Amor, food in Cuba has become an unattainable luxury. "They can't live like this. That's the stark reality," he stated.
The financial impact is equally severe. Since July 2026, the minimum wage for the state-funded sector in Cuba has been set at 3,210 pesos, equivalent to less than five dollars in the informal exchange market. Some workers earn just about 4,000 pesos a month on average in certain sectors, while independent estimates suggest a person needs over 96,000 pesos monthly to cover basic needs.
The wage paradox is striking: the construction sector pays nearly 14,500 pesos monthly—the highest in the country—yet struggles to attract workers. Despite the energy sector offering over 14,000 pesos on average, Cuba's energy system continues to fail. "The lowest-paying sectors in Cuba's economy are those reliant on government funding," Amor pointed out.
It's worth noting that ONEI's figures are based on the formal market and may underestimate the real cost increase. Independent estimates place the inflation of the basic basket near 70% annually when including the informal market, upon which most Cubans rely for supplies.
"By the end of the year, Cubans will have experienced a price increase in 2026 between 35% and 45%. It's brutal. That's impoverishment. Inflation erodes all savings, pensions, and the minimum wage," Amor concluded, as reported by Infobae.
Understanding Cuba's Economic Crisis
What is causing the high inflation in Cuba?
The significant inflation in Cuba is driven mainly by soaring food and non-alcoholic beverage prices, with substantial increases also seen in restaurants, hotels, and alcoholic beverages and tobacco sectors.
How does Cuba's inflation compare to other countries?
Cuba's inflation is significantly higher compared to countries like the United States and those in Europe, where inflation rates of around 4% are concerning. In contrast, Cubans face increases seven times that rate.
What is the impact of inflation on Cuban wages?
Inflation severely impacts Cuban wages, with the minimum wage barely covering basic needs. Some sectors offer higher wages, like construction and energy, but still fail to provide adequate compensation due to rampant inflation.