Katiuska (Katty) Huggins, a Venezuelan-Bolivian political scientist, asserted in an interview with CiberCuba that the Cuban regime is experiencing its most vulnerable phase since 1959. This is due in part to the loss of key allies and unyielding pressure from the United States.
"I believe this is the weakest moment for the Cuban regime, not only because of the situation in Venezuela but also due to China's internal issues and the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine," the analyst explained.
Huggins, who specializes in Latin American political processes, argued that Cuba holds a greater geopolitical significance for Washington than Venezuela because the island has long served as an extraregional influence platform just 90 miles from Florida.
"Politically, Cuba is more significant than Venezuela because it has been the epicenter of communism and subversion in Latin American states," she noted.
Historical Connections and Current Challenges
The analyst drew a direct line from Cuba's alliance with the Soviet Union to the current presence of Russia and China on the island, describing Cuba as "an enclave of an extra-regional actor" that has kept the United States on alert for generations.
In this context, Huggins identified three converging factors that leave the regime "quite defenseless": the reduction in Venezuelan support following Nicolás Maduro's capture earlier this year, internal restrictions that curb China's maneuverability, and the strain on Russia from the war in Ukraine.
International Dynamics and U.S. Pressure
This assessment aligns with the interception of the M/V Grace by the U.S. Coast Guard—a container ship carrying hidden fuel destined for Cuba, which was escorted to the Mexican port of Progreso in early October.
For Huggins, this incident is not isolated: "This operation highlights the oil pressure on Cuba, with commercial financial sanctions exerting greater pressure on physical supply routes to the island."
The analyst dismissed the notion that Washington would replicate in Cuba the operation carried out in Venezuela with Maduro, citing the international backlash over international law breaches.
"I do think there is now more diplomatic and economic pressure to avoid a military intervention," she clarified, adding that the U.S. strategy is to have the Cuban system "collapse on its own."
U.S. Political Stance
She referred to Secretary of State Marco Rubio's warnings, who demanded a democratic transition with free elections and made it clear that the regime’s time to negotiate is limited.
"Marco Rubio has been very explicit: Hopefully, Cuba will negotiate because otherwise, they will face brute force," summarized Huggins.
The political scientist also highlighted that the pressure measures are effective, even if the regime refuses to acknowledge it: "Clearly, they are having an impact, and the regime knows this. Obviously, they won't show it because they are elites without morals, but they are indeed disintegrating."
In her concluding analysis, Huggins rejected the notion that this historical opportunity could be lost: "Could the transition slip away? I would argue no, I believe they are at a critical juncture."
Key Questions About the Cuban Regime's Vulnerability
What factors contribute to the Cuban regime's current vulnerability?
The Cuban regime's vulnerability is due to the loss of key allies like Venezuela, internal issues in China, and the strain on Russia from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Why is Cuba geopolitically significant to the United States?
Cuba holds significant geopolitical importance because it has served as a platform for extraregional influence and has been a center of communism and subversion in Latin America, just 90 miles from Florida.
How is the United States exerting pressure on Cuba?
The United States is applying diplomatic and economic pressure, including sanctions that affect Cuba's supply routes, to encourage the regime to collapse on its own without needing military intervention.