Spanish economic media has once again highlighted the severe crisis in Cuba's tourism sector. An analysis published by elEconomista on October 10 delves into the sharp decline in international arrivals, the exit of major Spanish hotel chains, and the gloomy economic outlook for the island. The number of tourists plummeted by 64.4% as of August, with the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expected to shrink by 10.3% by 2026.
The report, authored by Víctor de Elena and titled "The Farewell of Spanish Hotel Chains Strangles Cuba," outlines the impact of fuel shortages, supply chain issues, flight cancellations, and the withdrawal of international operators on Cuba's tourism industry. The tourism statistics and economic forecasts originate from different entities and cover distinct periods; the latter is a projection, not an already realized GDP decrease.
The Sharp Decline in Visitor Numbers
According to data from the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI), Cuba welcomed only 450,353 international tourists between January and August 2026, compared to over 1.26 million during the same period in 2025. This represents a significant drop of 813,979 visitors, equating to a 64.4% decrease.
The situation worsened during the summer months. In August, only 30,490 international visitors arrived, down from 32,272 in July. As reported by CiberCuba on September 25, this decline affected key source markets: Canada saw 128,400 visitors—a 75.6% decrease from a year earlier; Russia recorded 21,563 visitors, down 73.3%; and Spain's numbers fell by 68.2%, with only 10,447 arrivals.
Impact on Cuba's Economy and Infrastructure
The collapse in tourism bookings and air connectivity poses a threat to an essential source of foreign currency for the island. Aviation fuel shortages and challenges in providing basic services have compounded a tourism crisis evident even before Washington's latest measures.
Departure of Spanish Hotel Chains
The analysis by elEconomista highlights the withdrawal of Meliá, Iberostar, and Barceló, companies that have played a central role in managing Cuban hotels for decades. CiberCuba reported in July that these companies ceased their operations following the United States' expansion of sanctions against entities linked to Cuba's state and military-run tourism sectors.
In an official statement to Spain's National Securities Market Commission, Meliá announced it would stop offering management and marketing services at all its Cuban establishments from July 24, citing operational, legal, economic, and financial challenges. Earlier in the year, the company managed 34 hotels in Cuba.
Iberostar, which had 18 establishments under its management, first abandoned 12, followed by the remaining six. Barceló also ceased operations in two Varadero hotels. The departure of these foreign brands doesn't necessarily mean all properties have permanently closed; many are owned by Cuban state enterprises, and only the international management and marketing contracts have ended.
Some of these facilities were part of Gaviota, a tourism entity integrated into GAESA, a business conglomerate linked to the Armed Forces. U.S. sanctions influenced the retreat of operators, while supply shortages, service deterioration, power outages, and low demand had weakened the business even before.
Projected Economic Decline
The tourism downturn aligns with an even more severe forecast for the national economy. The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) estimates that Cuba's GDP contracted by 3.8% in 2025, with a projected decline of 10.3% in 2026—the steepest predicted among Latin American and Caribbean nations. Another 5.1% drop is anticipated for 2027.
These figures are projections subject to revision, not definitive economic outcomes. The shrinkage in tourism exacerbates the foreign currency shortage, but the predicted economic contraction reflects broader issues: low production, an energy crisis, fuel scarcity, import challenges, and insufficient investment in critical sectors.
Hotels Closed and Workers Idle
The crisis also heavily impacts those who rely on tourism and its associated services. In July, Cuban Prime Minister Manuel Marrero acknowledged that 73% of hotel facilities were closed, leaving around 25,000 workers in a state of availability. These figures reflect the official balance at that time, not a new count as of October.
The extent of the tourism collapse also questions the Cuban state's strategy to expand hotel infrastructure amid ongoing deficits in electricity, food, and transportation. Cuba ended 2025 with approximately 1.8 million international visitors, far short of the more than four million annual tourists it received before the pandemic.
Understanding Cuba's Tourism Crisis
What factors have contributed to the decline in Cuba's tourism?
The decline in Cuba's tourism is attributed to fuel shortages, supply chain disruptions, flight cancellations, and the withdrawal of international operators, compounded by U.S. sanctions and the departure of major Spanish hotel chains.
How has the withdrawal of Spanish hotel chains impacted Cuba's tourism industry?
The departure of Spanish hotel chains like Meliá, Iberostar, and Barceló has significantly affected Cuba's tourism industry, leading to reduced management and marketing capabilities and highlighting operational and financial difficulties.