On Sunday, Donald Trump took to his social media platform, Truth Social, to share his views on the rising gas prices in the United States. He dismissed the idea that the Strait of Hormuz was still the main culprit, instead blaming Ukraine and the Democratic Party for the increasing costs impacting American consumers.
"The reason gas prices are soaring is no longer the Strait of Hormuz, as record numbers of barrels are being shipped almost daily. It's the word 'refineries': Russian ones are being destroyed by Ukraine, and ours are being shut down in blue states like California by the 'Dumocrats'," Trump wrote, using the derogatory term "Dumocrats" to refer to the Democrats.
Complex Factors Behind Gas Price Hike
While Trump's statement contains some factual elements, market analysts and data suggest a far more intricate picture. By late September, the average price of regular gasoline in the U.S. was about $4.24 per gallon, up from $2.98 on February 28, 2026—a nearly 45% increase that aligns directly with the onset of the war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, as well as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
At the height of the crisis, oil flow through Hormuz plummeted by 97%, impacting approximately 2,000 vessels and 20,000 sailors. The Dallas Federal Reserve estimated that the price of WTI crude oil surged from around $60 in late January to an average of $91 in March.
Refinery Closures and Their Impact
Trump is correct in noting the recovery of crude flows through Hormuz; data from Kpler reported by Reuters indicated they had reached 13.5 million barrels per day by September 28, matching pre-war levels. However, shipments of refined fuels were only at 58% of their pre-conflict numbers, and U.S. gasoline inventories hit a 12-year low, according to Yahoo Finance and CNBC.
Regarding California's refineries, the closures are indeed happening: Phillips 66 ceased crude processing at its Los Angeles facility (140,000 barrels per day) in October 2025, and Valero shut down its Benicia refinery (145,000 barrels per day) in April 2026. These closures reduced the state's refining capacity by 17-20%. However, independent analysts attribute these closures to low profit margins, high operational costs, and regulatory environment—rather than directives from the Democratic Party.
Ukraine's Role in the Global Energy Landscape
As for Ukraine, assaults on Russian refineries are ongoing and verifiable. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense claimed responsibility for disabling 51% of Russian refining capacity, though this figure hasn't been independently verified. The International Energy Agency estimated a 30% reduction in Russian diesel production.
Trump previously urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in September to halt these attacks, arguing they contributed to rising prices. On September 14, he announced an energy ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine, which Zelensky refuted as unofficial. Far from abating, on October 3, Zelensky declared that Ukraine would escalate attacks on Russian refineries in response to Russia's new airstrike doctrine. The following day, Russia threatened to expand retaliatory actions against facilities in Kyiv and other regions.
Trump's remarks come just weeks before the 2026 midterm elections, amid intense political pressure over escalating energy costs. Diesel prices in the U.S. exceeded $6 per gallon for the first time in mid-September.
Understanding the Impact of Gasoline Price Increases
What factors are contributing to the high gasoline prices in the U.S.?
Gasoline prices have been influenced by a range of factors, including disruptions in oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz, refinery closures in California, and geopolitical tensions involving Ukraine and Russia.
How have refinery closures in California affected gas prices?
Refinery closures in California have reduced the state's refining capacity by 17-20%, contributing to lower gasoline inventories and higher prices due to decreased supply.
What is the significance of the Strait of Hormuz in global oil trade?
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for global oil trade, with a significant portion of the world's oil supply passing through it. Disruptions can lead to substantial volatility in oil and gas prices worldwide.