The Forecast Center of the Institute of Meteorology (INSMET) released its initial alert on Tuesday regarding Tropical Depression Nine, which has formed in the Gulf of Mexico. While this system has the potential to develop into a hurricane, it currently poses no immediate threat to Cuba.
As of 5:00 p.m., the depression's center was situated at 22.1 degrees north latitude and 95.6 degrees west longitude, approximately 615 kilometers west of Progreso, Mexico, according to INSMET's report shared on Telegram.
The system was exhibiting maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h, with higher gusts, a central pressure of 1,007 hectopascals, and was moving slowly eastward at about 7 km/h. These details align with the initial advisory from the United States' National Hurricane Center (NHC).
INSMET noted that the depression is expected to continue to organize and intensify, potentially becoming a tropical storm by early Wednesday.
If it reaches this status, it will be named Isaias.
The NHC anticipates consistent strengthening, predicting the system could escalate to hurricane status by Thursday. The projected path indicates it will pass north of the Yucatán Peninsula that day, then curve northeast toward the northern Gulf Coast of the United States by Friday.
Currently, there are no coastal watches or warnings in place for the system, though the NHC has advised residents of the Yucatán Peninsula and the U.S. Gulf Coast, from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle, to closely monitor its progress.
Coastal areas of the Bay of Campeche could experience rainfall amounts ranging from 50 to 100 millimeters through Thursday. For the central U.S. Gulf Coast, forecasts predict accumulations between 75 and 150 mm from Friday through the weekend, with isolated maximums reaching up to 254 mm, which could result in flash and urban flooding.
Minimal Threat to Cuba
INSMET emphasized in their assessment: "This system does not pose a threat to Cuba."
The NHC also excludes the island from the regions threatened by the cyclone. The forecasted path remains west and northwest of Cuban territory, though the system’s progression will continue to be monitored as it moves through the Gulf.
Tropical Depression Nine emerges in the midst of an unusually quiet 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. The eight previously named storms—Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, and Hanna—failed to develop into hurricanes.
This calm season contrasts with earlier projections released by INSMET in May, which anticipated a season with 11 tropical cyclones, including five hurricanes.
Even though the current system doesn't directly threaten Cuba, October remains one of the most active months for cyclones affecting the island. Therefore, meteorologists continue to keep a close watch on the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico.
The NHC will keep updating the track and intensity of Tropical Depression Nine in the coming hours.
Key Information on Tropical Depression Nine
What is the current status of Tropical Depression Nine?
As of now, Tropical Depression Nine has formed in the Gulf of Mexico and is showing potential to develop into a tropical storm, possibly reaching hurricane status later this week.
Does Tropical Depression Nine pose a threat to Cuba?
Currently, there is no direct threat to Cuba from Tropical Depression Nine, as its forecasted path remains to the west and northwest of the island.
How should residents in the Gulf region prepare?
Residents in the Yucatán Peninsula and the U.S. Gulf Coast should closely monitor updates from the NHC and prepare for potential rain and flooding, especially in low-lying urban areas.