A new weather system, officially named Tropical Depression Nine, has emerged in the southwest Gulf of Mexico, according to the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) first public advisory. Cuba, however, is not on the list of affected areas, and no coastal watches or warnings are active for any nation.
At the time of the advisory, the system was positioned roughly 615 kilometers west of Progreso, Mexico, with maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h and a central pressure of 1,007 mb. It was moving slowly eastward at a pace of 7 km/h.
The NHC forecasts a rapid intensification: the system is expected to become a tropical storm by early Wednesday and may reach hurricane strength by Thursday.
Potential Storm Path
Should it develop into a tropical storm, it would be named Isaías and mark the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season, noted as the calmest in over a century so far.
The anticipated path directs the cyclone east and northeast, moving north of the Yucatán Peninsula by Thursday. NHC forecast points place the system at 23.1°N, 91.8°W on October 8, progressing towards 24.2°N, 90.1°W and 25.9°N, 88.8°W by October 9, with winds potentially exceeding 148 km/h.
By Friday, it is expected to near the northern Gulf Coast of the United States, between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle, possibly making landfall as a dangerous hurricane with winds approaching 160 km/h.
This projected path moves through the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico, to the west and northwest of Cuba. The NHC advises those in the Yucatán Peninsula and along the US northern Gulf Coast to closely monitor the system's progression, though Cuba is not mentioned in any alerts.
Current Risk to Cuba
As of now, there is no direct threat to Cuba. The NHC's first advisory omits Cuba from impacted areas, focusing instead on Yucatán, where winds and rainfall of 50 to 100 mm are anticipated until Thursday, and the US Gulf Coast, expecting 75 to 150 mm of rain from Friday through the weekend, with localized peaks reaching 250 mm.
Nevertheless, the NHC cautions in its initial technical discussion that "significant uncertainty exists regarding the precise northeast turn of the system and its approach speed towards the coast."
Additionally, while the cyclone is expected to remain compact over the coming days, it will "expand significantly in size, particularly on its eastern side," as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast.
This eastward expansion is a factor worth monitoring from Cuba. Depending on the system's evolution, western Cuba might experience some associated rain bands, although the NHC has not issued precipitation forecasts for Cuban territory in this advisory.
Cuban meteorologist José Rubiera had recently warned that the precursor system "very likely" would become a tropical cyclone, though he emphasized that it was too early to pinpoint the exact impact location.
The NHC urges not to focus solely on forecast points but to stay updated due to the existing uncertainty margin. The next full advisory is scheduled for 10:00 p.m. CDT on Tuesday.
FAQs on Tropical Depression Nine and Its Potential Impact
Is Cuba in danger from Tropical Depression Nine?
Currently, Cuba is not considered at risk from Tropical Depression Nine, as the NHC has not included it in the affected areas.
What is the expected path of this weather system?
The system is projected to move east and northeast, crossing north of the Yucatán Peninsula and nearing the US northern Gulf Coast between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.
Could the system affect Cuba with rain bands?
There is a possibility that western Cuba might experience some rain bands, depending on how the system evolves and expands, particularly on its eastern side.