A Vanderbilt University LAPOP Lab survey highlights that a significant majority of Cubans with internet access hold their government accountable for the island's ongoing crisis. Additionally, nearly 60% prefer some form of connection with the United States rather than maintaining full independence. This analysis, penned by political scientist Orlando J. Pérez from the University of North Texas at Dallas, was published in Americas Quarterly on October 1.
Conducted between June 19 and July 6, the survey engaged 1,095 Cubans from 16 provinces via an online panel by Cubadata. Notably, this marks Cuba's inaugural inclusion in the AmericasBarometer, the most comprehensive public opinion project in the Americas. The authors caution that the sample is not statistically representative of the entire Cuban adult population, being skewed towards younger, urban individuals with internet access, and should not be taken as a national poll.
The findings challenge the regime's sovereignty narrative with undeniable clarity. When asked about the optimal institutional future for Cuba, only 34% supported a fully independent republic. Meanwhile, 30% favored a status akin to Puerto Rico's commonwealth with the U.S., and 29% backed direct annexation. Altogether, 59% of respondents leaned toward some form of integration with Washington over complete independence.
Economic Development vs. National Independence
In a separate binary question, 73% prioritized economic development involving foreign participation over national independence without it, and 77% demanded immediate economic changes rather than institutional reforms.
Pérez emphasizes that these results arise amidst a diplomatic standoff between Washington and Havana at the UN, which overlooks what Cubans truly desire. On September 22, President Donald Trump labeled Cuba a "failed state" at the General Assembly, prompting the Cuban delegation to walk out. Four days later, Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla responded by condemning the embargo as "ruthless siege" and "collective punishment," asserting Havana's openness to dialogue. Neither side, Pérez notes, has clarified what a potential agreement would entail.
Perceptions of Power and Economic Beneficiaries
One of the survey's most politically significant findings is the perception of true power: 46% of respondents identified the Castro family as the key decision-makers in Cuba, despite no Castro holding formal executive positions since Raúl Castro transferred the Communist Party's leadership to Miguel Díaz-Canel in April 2021. Only 14% saw Díaz-Canel as the actual power center, while roughly one-sixth pointed to the Communist Party.
The survey also reveals that 31% believe the primary beneficiaries of the government's economic measures are state-linked companies and individuals—a direct indication towards GAESA, the military conglomerate controlling 40% to 70% of Cuba's formal economy. Meanwhile, just 4% thought ordinary Cubans benefited.
Impact of Energy Crisis
The backdrop of the entire study is the disastrous energy situation: 86% of respondents reported daily power outages in the month preceding the survey. On September 18, the National Electric System faced its eighth total collapse of the year, with blackouts lasting up to 20 hours daily.
These results align closely with an independent survey from May 2026, conducted by over 20 independent Cuban media outlets, which gathered more than 42,000 responses. It found that 94% were highly dissatisfied with the political system, and 95% felt citizens lacked a real voice in national decisions. Although both surveys reflect widespread disapproval of the regime, their methodologies differ and are not directly comparable.
Pérez concludes that both Washington and Havana are debating "the wrong Cuba": the regime defends a sovereignty that only a third of connected Cubans would choose, while the U.S. demands elections from a government that fewer than a third of respondents see as the true power center, "on behalf of a population that, above all, wants the lights back on."
Understanding Cuban Sentiments on Government and Independence
Why do most Cubans blame their government for the current crisis?
Many Cubans attribute the crisis to government policies and decisions that have not effectively addressed the island's economic and social challenges.
What do Cubans prefer over full independence?
Nearly 60% of surveyed Cubans favor some form of relationship with the United States, such as a commonwealth status similar to Puerto Rico's or even direct annexation, over complete independence.
How does the current energy crisis affect Cuban sentiments?
The energy crisis, marked by frequent and prolonged power outages, has exacerbated dissatisfaction with the government and intensified demands for immediate economic reforms.