Latino voters, who played a pivotal role in Donald Trump's victory in 2024, are now significantly withdrawing their support, according to a fresh survey by NBC News and Telemundo released this Sunday, just under a month before the midterm elections on November 3.
The poll, conducted between September 21 and 28 with 800 registered Latino voters, reveals Trump's approval rating among this demographic is a mere 27%.
The disapproval figures are stark across various issues: 78% disapprove of his handling of the cost of living, 74% are unhappy with his economic policies, 69% disapprove of his immigration policies, and 68% oppose his foreign policy.
Even on border security, where Trump traditionally finds more favor among Latinos, 58% express disapproval compared to 39% who approve of his management.
Two-thirds of participants believe the administration's deportation policies have gone too far.
In this context, Democrats hold a 24-point lead in preference for Congress control among Latino voters: 59% favor Democrats over 35% for Republicans.
This gap is twice as large as the one Democrats had among this same electorate at this point in the 2024 electoral cycle.
The shift in economic issues is particularly noteworthy: two years ago, Latinos gave Trump a four-point edge over Kamala Harris on economic management; now, they give Democrats a 21-point advantage on that same question.
Nearly one-fifth of Latino voters who supported Trump in 2024 now express no desire for a Republican-controlled Congress: 14% now prefer Democrats, and 8% remain undecided.
Republican strategist Micah Roberts, from Public Opinion Strategies, who conducted the poll alongside Democratic pollster Aileen Cardona-Arroyo, described the change as "impressive" and characterized Latinos as "the swingiest swing group of all."
"What we can truly say with this data is that 2024 was an anomaly. Trump is a central figure. He has had real consequences on our politics, and without his presence, I don't think any of these changes would be evident in the Latino data," stated Roberts.
Meanwhile, Cardona-Arroyo noted that the results "indicate a remarkable reversal of Republican gains with Latino voters and signal challenges ahead for Republican candidates in the midterm elections."
However, the pollster cautioned that the Democratic advantage has its limits: "Despite a more favorable environment for Democrats, any Democratic gains this November will be driven more by opposition to Trump and the economic climate than by support for Democrats."
This shift has direct implications for the electoral map. The Republican Party redrew districts in Florida and Texas with Latino majorities based on the 2024 results, betting that this demographic had become a solid base, but many of these districts are now shaping up to be competitive.
In Florida, Cuban-American Congresswoman María Elvira Salazar is facing a tough race, with internal polls showing her tied at 45%, prompting her to release a bilingual ad warning that many Hispanics "feel betrayed."
Nevada and southern Texas also emerge as key battlegrounds where the Latino vote will be crucial in determining control of Congress on November 3.
In Miami-Dade, the deadline to register and vote in these elections is next Monday, with early voting set to begin on October 19.
Key Insights on Latino Voter Trends
What is the current approval rating of Donald Trump among Latino voters?
Donald Trump's approval rating among Latino voters stands at just 27% according to the recent poll.
How do Latino voters feel about Trump's economic policies?
A significant 74% of Latino voters disapprove of Trump's economic policies based on the survey data.
What percentage of Latino voters prefer Democratic control of Congress?
According to the poll, 59% of Latino voters favor Democratic control of Congress over 35% who support Republicans.