Fuel Imports Challenge Cuban Government's Claims on Oil Supply

For several months, Cuban authorities have insisted that the nation has virtually halted receiving fuel from abroad. However, recent revelations cast doubt on these claims and suggest a different story about the island's fuel situation.

Conflicting Statements from Cuban Leaders

On July 29, the Minister of Energy and Mines, Vicente de la O Levy, stated that Cuba was receiving "no fuel, absolutely nothing," emphasizing that the country requires approximately eight million tons annually to support its economy and power generation.

In August, President Miguel Díaz-Canel declared that only one oil tanker, the Anatoli Kolodkin from Russia, had arrived in the previous seven months, carrying about 100,000 tons of crude oil in late March.

By September 23, Díaz-Canel was even more definitive, asserting, "No fuel ship has entered this country for nine months," suggesting no fuel was arriving "from anywhere in the world."

The M/V Grace and Its Implications

The M/V Grace, intercepted by the U.S. Coast Guard on September 5 while allegedly transporting fuel to Cuba, is said to have made a previous delivery to the island. According to energy analyst Jorge Piñón, data from VesselFinder indicates the ship left Panama carrying fuel and arrived at the port of Mariel on July 18. Its draft suggests it unloaded there before departing Cuba empty four days later and heading to Mexico.

This timeline raises questions as De la O Levy's claim of no fuel imports came just eleven days after Grace's reported delivery. Furthermore, it contradicts Díaz-Canel's statement that only the Anatoly Kolodkin had delivered oil in the prior seven months.

While the Grace alone doesn't confirm the final destination of its cargo, its presence in Mariel challenges the claim that no fuel-carrying vessel has docked in Cuba since March.

Rising Imports from the United States

Meanwhile, another significant development has been the surge in fuel imports from the United States. Official U.S. data shows exports of 3,222,000 barrels of petroleum products to Cuba in July alone, up from 778,000 in June. Between January and July, total exports reached 4,896,000 barrels. The July shipments mainly comprised distillates, with gasoline, lubricants, and aviation fuel also included.

These exports, valued at approximately $156.8 million from January to July, are authorized for Cuba's private sector, explicitly excluding the government, military, and sanctioned state entities. However, once the fuel arrives in Cuba, the distinction between private and state use becomes blurred.

Private Sector Fuel Filling State Needs

Guantanamo authorities publicly acknowledged in September that, due to a lack of state diesel and gasoline supplies, they considered purchasing fuel from private enterprises to maintain essential services such as health, education, transportation, communications, and water pumping.

This scenario illustrates how privately imported fuel can become a resource for state activities through commercial transactions.

Evidence of State Utilization

A report by 14ymedio, highlighted by CiberCuba, revealed that the El Eficiente service center near Villa Marista, the State Security headquarters in Havana, was supplying vehicles linked to the Ministry of the Interior with fuel imported from the United States. These vehicles included Sepsa cars, special brigade trucks known as "black berets," and Suzuki motorcycles used by State Security agents.

While this case doesn't prove all privately imported fuel ends up in state hands, it demonstrates that U.S.-sourced fuel intended for the private sector supplied state-related vehicles in at least one documented instance.

The Resilience of the Cuban State Amid Fuel Shortages

Despite a severe energy crisis, with 106 distributed generation plants reportedly halted in July due to fuel shortages, and extensive blackouts affecting much of the country, the Cuban state continued to function. Public services, official vehicles, businesses, and security forces operated under strict limitations.

This continuity is partially attributed to Cuba's domestic oil and gas production, renewable energy sources, and a drastic reduction in consumption. However, these factors alone don't explain where all the gasoline, diesel, and other derivatives came from during these challenging months.

Thus, the arrival of the Grace in July, the millions of barrels reported as U.S. exports, and specific instances of state reliance on private fuel imports raise critical questions. What does the government mean when it claims no fuel is arriving? If they refer solely to large shipments received by state enterprises, clarity is needed. If they include all fuel entering Cuban territory, current data contradicts their statements.