Gustavo Marín Duarte, a Cuban exile since 1961 and the founder of the Abdala Group, shared a grim assessment with Tania Costa for CiberCuba. He described what he sees as nearly seventy years of accumulated failures and the depletion of political and social reserves across multiple generations of Cubans, both on the island and in exile.
At just 13 years old, Marín arrived in the United States a few weeks after his father was detained prior to the Bay of Pigs invasion.
"My father held a relatively significant position in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and was part of the generation that believed in Cuba's potential for change, a practical change for everyone, a renewal of spirit that had transcended through the ages," Marín recounted.
The burden of this failure is not borne solely by those who witnessed the foundational moment of 1959. Marín points to a weariness that has been passed down from generation to generation, with none succeeding in overturning the dictatorship or building a viable alternative either from within or in exile.
Today, this diagnosis is reflected in unprecedented demographic changes. Between 2021 and 2026, over 1.79 million Cubans left the island, marking the largest exodus in the country's history. Birth rates have plummeted to a 65-year low, with the country losing over 307,000 residents in just 12 months, and 25.7% of the population is now over 60 years old.
A staggering 38% of Cuban households have at least one member living abroad, a figure that demonstrates how human depletion has moved beyond statistics to become an everyday reality for nearly every Cuban family.
Analyst Alejandro de la Fuente describes this phenomenon as a "stampede" of young people who grew up without Fidel Castro, with internet access and no connection to the revolutionary myth, making the current crisis potentially more irreversible than previous ones.
The younger generation, which under different circumstances might have led a change, has overwhelmingly chosen to leave. The question lingering over the interview—whether change in Cuba is possible and how it might be achieved—remains unanswered amid this void.
Marín co-founded the Abdala Group with six other young Cuban students on January 28, 1968, at the Hotel Woodstock in New York. The organization, analyzed by historian Michael J. Bustamante in a 2015 academic paper, combined anti-communism with a clear rejection of U.S. imperialism, representing a heterodox nationalist trend within the historical exile community.
Activist Carolina Barrero has recently warned that the depth of the current crisis alone does not guarantee a political solution, a view that resonates with Marín's skepticism about decades of missed opportunities and generations consumed by a dictatorship that has remained in power for over seventy years.
Exploring Cuba's Ongoing Crisis and Potential for Change
What has caused the significant exodus from Cuba?
The ongoing economic and political crisis, lack of opportunities, and a government that has failed to provide a viable future have driven over 1.79 million Cubans to leave the island between 2021 and 2026, marking the largest exodus in Cuba's history.
How have demographic changes impacted Cuba?
Cuba has experienced a significant decline in birth rates, the lowest in 65 years, resulting in a population reduction of over 307,000 people within 12 months. Additionally, 25.7% of the population is over 60, indicating a rapidly aging society.
Why is the current crisis considered potentially irreversible?
Analyst Alejandro de la Fuente suggests that the young generation, who grew up without the influence of Fidel Castro and with internet access, does not identify with the revolutionary myth, making the crisis more challenging to reverse than in the past.