Is 'The Crab' Poised to Seize Power in Cuba?

A group of analysts recently discussed whether Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, widely referred to as "The Crab," is genuinely positioned to ascend to power in Cuba following the death of his grandfather, Raúl Castro. Their consensus was clear: yes, though not due to his intellectual prowess.

"Is he ready? Absolutely, without a doubt. Although his intellectual capabilities, as far as evidence suggests, aren't the highest, there is no substantial proof of this since we've only heard him speak once," commented one of the panelists during the discussion, which featured Manuel Milanés, Sayde Chaling-Chong, and Jorge de Armas.

The Power of Survival Logic

The focus of the analysis wasn't on the heir's abilities, but rather on the survival logic that supports him. "Once Raúl is gone, who will take over? Those who don't want to disappear. They will see him as their sole chance to survive," one participant elaborated.

Generals, colonels, and lieutenant colonels—all levels of the regime's military and security hierarchy—have their own motivations to keep the heir in place. "His survival is assured by the fragility of the totalitarian structure," summarized one of the analysts.

A Sultanate of Interdependencies

Jorge de Armas, one of the panelists, described the Castro regime as a "sultanate" of interdependencies that transcends ideology. "In this sultanate, there are interdependencies, many of them rooted not only in well-being because it's your home, your travels, your cars, your power generator," he noted, illustrating a network of privileges that binds the elite to the heir just as much as he relies on them.

This network, according to the panel, operates as "a completely mafioso, completely blackmailing, completely extortionate structure," and it's precisely these actors who "will back The Crab."

The Emergence of Raúl's Grandson

Raúl Castro's grandson, approximately 41 years old, holds the rank of lieutenant colonel or colonel within the MININT and leads the General Directorate of Personal Security, the unit tasked with physically safeguarding his grandfather. His nickname stems from being born with six fingers on one hand. Until this year, he operated in the shadows, but his profile rose dramatically in May when CIA Director John Ratcliffe met with him in Havana. In June, he publicly spoke for the first time, promoting what he described as a "new model."

The panelists also highlighted that The Crab "has been groomed in the manner heirs are groomed, through conversations and meetings," and that for the role he is destined to play, "he is perfectly equipped."

Chaling-Chong issued a stark warning to those who underestimate him: "Keep underestimating The Crab, and you'll be in for a shock." The analyst also predicted that "2026 will mark the end of the Cuban dictatorship," although he acknowledged that the outcome heavily relies on external factors, particularly those involving Washington. In this context, the panel noted that Marco Rubio has expressed openness to engaging with regime figures if a genuine transition occurs, while Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez accused him of lying about ongoing negotiations.

The Cuban exile community received a critical assessment. "We are a very weak exile, a very fragmented exile, an exile that has, from its own roots, contributed to our division, and we haven't prepared for the transition," Chaling-Chong admitted.

"The end, of course, is irreversible and inevitable," concluded the analyst, emphasizing that regardless of the heir's or his grandfather's maneuvers, the regime's collapse is, in his view, a matter of time.