Inflation in Cuba shows no signs of slowing down. According to the Cuban Economic Report from the Center for the Study of the Cuban Economy (CEEC) at the University of Havana, covering the first half of 2026, the escalating prices have become one of the most crippling aspects of the current crisis.
Throughout the first six months, cumulative inflation reached 12.24%, compared to 8.26% during the same period in 2025. The trend is clear: official inflation began the year at 12.52% in January, climbed to 14.73% by April, soared to 18.27% in June, and hit 20.70% in July, before reaching 25.19% year-on-year in August with a monthly increase of 4.92%, the highest of the year.
The primary driver behind this surge is the cost of food and non-alcoholic beverages, which saw an annual increase of 36.01% in August, with these items accounting for 63.18% of the overall consumer price index increase in July.
This situation translates into a harsh reality for Cuban families: a pound of chicken is priced at 800 pesos in small private businesses in Havana, a bag of milk costs up to 6,500 pesos in Matanzas, and a bottle of oil ranges between 3,800 and 4,000 pesos—all this against a minimum wage of just 3,210 pesos a month.
"Folks, we need to put a STOP quickly because I don't know where we're headed. Here in the small businesses, a pound of chicken is 800 pesos," lamented Dalma Rosell Marrero, a resident of East Havana, in a Facebook post.
The cost of living for a small family in Havana exceeds 205,000 pesos per month, while the average state salary hovers around 7,000 pesos.
Impact of External Sanctions and Internal Measures
The CEEC points to the primary trigger being the U.S. sanctions regime which, from January 2026, simultaneously affected Cuba's energy, trade, tourism, investment, and financial sectors.
"The defining feature of the first half of 2026 is not only the ongoing crisis but the emergence of a sanctions system that simultaneously impacted energy, trade, tourism, investment, and finance," the report highlights.
Adding to the woes was the loss of subsidized Venezuelan fuel supply after the capture of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, which left Cuba—country producing only enough crude to meet 40% of its energy needs—without its main external support.
In response, the regime approved a package of 176 measures in June, including the Ministry of Finance and Prices' Resolution 150/2026, which removed price caps on chicken, oils, powdered milk, pasta, and sausages. Despite intentions, this move sparked another price spiral.
Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz stated to the parliament that the government "will no longer approve capped prices."
The confusion over price setting escalated to the point where the official newspaper Periódico Girón in Matanzas opened a public debate asking "who sets the price?" in Cuba. The readers' response was unequivocal: "Prices are set by whoever wants to."
In September, the provincial government of Matanzas shut down 46 establishments for price violations, but the situation showed no visible improvement.
Independent economists estimate that real inflation—including the informal market—stands at around 67% year-on-year, a figure that led economist Steve Hanke to place Cuba among the countries with the highest inflation globally, trailing only Venezuela, Iran, North Korea, and Sudan.
As a further indication of the monetary deterioration, the Central Bank of Cuba issued 10,000 and 20,000 peso notes on September 16, marking the highest denominations in the nation's history, while the informal dollar rate exceeded 700 pesos, setting a new historic high.
The CEEC warns that the very constraints necessitating structural transformation "also diminish the resources, time, and political margin available to implement it," a contradiction that, if unresolved, suggests that the end of 2026 will far exceed the 25% official inflation threshold.
Frequently Asked Questions about Cuba's Inflation Crisis
What are the main causes of inflation in Cuba?
The inflation in Cuba is primarily driven by rising prices in food and beverages, compounded by U.S. sanctions affecting multiple sectors and the loss of Venezuelan subsidized fuel.
How has the Cuban government responded to the inflation crisis?
The Cuban government has enacted a series of measures, including removing price caps on essential goods. However, these actions have not stabilized the market and have contributed to further price increases.
What is the impact of inflation on Cuban families?
Inflation has led to exorbitant prices for basic necessities, making it difficult for families to afford food and other essentials on the average Cuban salary.