The CIA has informed several European governments about a detailed report concerning Kremlin plans to launch drone attacks on Spain, France, or Italy from merchant ships in the Mediterranean, as revealed by an exclusive from El Mundo.
This alert marks a substantial escalation of the Russian threat, shifting focus from the eastern NATO countries to the southern part of Western Europe.
The attack vector involves the Gerbera drone, a low-cost Russian device measuring around two meters in length, with a wingspan of 2.5 meters. Weighing up to 18 kilograms, it can travel at approximately 160 kilometers per hour and has a maximum range of 600 kilometers.
Potential Drone Launch from Sea
An anonymous source from Lithuania's Ministry of Defense described the method as straightforward: "They will deploy drones from the sea, hidden within a ship's container; it's not difficult at all."
These drones would be launched from oil tankers in Russia's so-called "phantom fleet," positioned 200 to 300 kilometers off the coast. This would result in flights lasting between an hour and a quarter to two hours.
Equipped with just four to five kilos of explosives, the Gerbera is not designed to destroy large facilities. Instead, its purpose is to close airports, start fires, or demonstrate Russia's capability to reach Europe's rear. The intended impact is as much political and economic as it is physical.
Implications of a Secret CIA Visit
The intelligence reached allies shortly after a secret trip by CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Moscow on August 25, the first visit by a CIA chief to Russia since November 2021.
Ratcliffe traveled on a military plane with a stopover in Riga and, according to The Wall Street Journal and Politico, was there to caution Moscow against any attacks or provocations towards NATO. While the Kremlin acknowledged "intelligence service contacts" and confirmed President Putin was informed, they denied any direct meeting.
European Response and Strategic Concerns
Several defense analysts confirmed the existence of the CIA report, describing it as "highly precise" in detailing the potential attack. The French, in particular, found it "very credible," leading to an extraordinary reaction from Emmanuel Macron: On September 16, he convened the Defense Council, and two days later, he summoned leaders of all political parties and presidential candidates for 2027 to the Élysée Palace.
The choice of these three countries is deliberate. All have elections in 2027 and political forces that could exploit fear and fatigue over Ukraine.
British analyst Keir Giles, an expert in Russian military strategy, warns that "the frontline countries may not necessarily be the targets" and highlights that "the target will be where Europe's weakest point is found," specifically mentioning Spain and the United Kingdom for not investing in integrated air defense systems.
Russian Hybrid Warfare Escalation
This alert is part of a broader Russian hybrid warfare escalation against Western Europe. A previous major turning point was the Leipzig airport incident, where a drone with an explosive device was detected, intended to attack a Ukrainian cargo plane. Germany formally blamed Russia and closed a Russian consulate in Berlin.
Previously, about a year ago, 19 unarmed Russian drones veered into Polish airspace, prompting urgent NATO consultations.
In Russian military circles, maps with potential targets in southern France are already circulating. On September 19, the influential Telegram channel Rybar published a Mediterranean infographic titled "Russian Medicine against French Arrogance," envisioning supplying drones to Algeria to attack French aeronautical factories, military bases, and nuclear plants.
European Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius had clearly warned: "Russia can easily launch drones over Spanish airports and harm the tourism industry."
Meanwhile, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys summed up the allied stance on the threat: "Russia won't hide. We just need to prevent the consequences."
Concerns About Russian Drone Threats
What is the Gerbera drone?
The Gerbera drone is a low-cost Russian device used for potential attacks, measuring around two meters in length, with a wingspan of 2.5 meters, capable of traveling at 160 kilometers per hour, and having a maximum range of 600 kilometers.
Why are Spain, France, and Italy potential targets?
These countries have been identified as potential targets due to their political climate and elections in 2027, which could be exploited by forces capitalizing on fear and fatigue related to Ukraine.
What was the purpose of John Ratcliffe's visit to Moscow?
CIA Director John Ratcliffe visited Moscow to warn against any attacks or provocations towards NATO, marking the first visit by a CIA chief to Russia since 2021.