In a recent segment on CiberCuba, economist Elías Amor made a firm assertion: "Cuba will never adopt the dollar." When asked by host Tania Costa if this stance could change during a potential political transition, his response was equally unwavering: "No, it won't."
This declaration came after examining two new currency resolutions from the Cuban regime—Resolution 102/2026 from the Central Bank and Resolution 103/2026 from the Ministry of Economy—published on September 10 in the Official Gazette. Amor clarified that these measures do not pave the way for genuine dollarization, but rather for something much more constrained.
Understanding the Economic Framework
To illustrate his point, Amor referenced a specific case from the resolution: the 80/20 scheme outlined in Resolution 103/2026. Under this mechanism, an exporter who earns 10,000 euros from, say, exporting two tons of soursop, retains only 8,000 in foreign currency. The remaining 2,000 is converted to Cuban pesos at the current exchange rate. "Cuban pesos, exactly what people do not want," Amor emphasized.
The Ministry of Economy itself acknowledges that the new regulations imply a "partial dollarization," yet clarifies that this "does not mean fully dollarizing the economy." Amor agrees but takes it further: major state sectors—healthcare, education, public administration—will continue to operate in Cuban pesos, making comprehensive dollarization structurally impossible.
The Currency Chaos in Cuba
Amor also highlighted the existing chaos in Cuba's currency system. He cited a comment from a CiberCuba viewer: "With the stores, it's such a mess. They switch from MLC to dollars and then back to MLC, total madness." Amor confirmed this perception and recalled an episode that triggered widespread public dissatisfaction: when stores gave out candies instead of change. "In Cuba, with things as they are now, even 20 cents can be quite valuable," he noted.
Economic Instability and Future Prospects
This monetary dysfunction is exacerbated by macroeconomic data. The informal dollar exchange rate surpassed 700 Cuban pesos in mid-September, setting a new record, and was trading at 718 CUP in the informal market by Tuesday. The Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) predicts a contraction of the Cuban GDP by 6.5% to 10.3% in 2026, with a fiscal deficit exceeding 12% of GDP.
Regarding the possibility of a transitional government opting for dollarization, Amor dismissed it. He argued that without foreign currency reserves or solid economic foundations, Cuba lacks the capacity to sustain such a process. "In transition, I imagine those governing will make enough mistakes to realize that tying the Cuban economy to the dollar could be detrimental," he stated.
This debate unfolds amidst heightened economic scrutiny of Cuba. Harvard's report on democratic transition, also published on September 10 by the David Rockefeller Center for Latin American Studies, suggests a social market economy and the release of political prisoners as initial steps. Amor favors the term "market economy," noting that in Cuba, "there has been no market for 67 years, only central planning in resource allocation and an utterly perverse system of price control."
Frequently Asked Questions about Cuban Economy and Dollarization
Why does Elías Amor believe Cuba will never dollarize?
Amor argues that the new currency resolutions do not allow for real dollarization and that major state sectors will continue using Cuban pesos. He also points out the lack of economic stability and foreign currency reserves as barriers.
What is the impact of the 80/20 scheme on Cuban exporters?
Under the 80/20 scheme, exporters retain only 80% of their foreign earnings, with the rest converted to Cuban pesos, which are less desirable due to economic instability.
How does the informal dollar exchange rate affect the Cuban economy?
The soaring informal dollar exchange rate indicates significant economic instability, making everyday transactions and imports substantially more expensive for Cubans.