Harvard Experts Envision Cuba's Future: Democracy, Private Ownership, and Market Economy

A report from the Harvard Working Group on the Future of Cuba goes beyond merely diagnosing the island's economic, social, and political decline. It delves into a more complex question: how should Cuba be structured following a democratic transition?

The long-term plan involves establishing a democratic and pluralistic political system alongside a "social market economy" that embraces various forms of ownership, explicitly including private property.

Released on September 10, after six months of work led by Harvard University’s Cuba Studies Program and the Afro-Latin American Research Institute, the document also suggests forming a new Constituent Assembly, fundamentally transforming the economic model, and involving the diaspora as a key player in national reconstruction.

The authors emphasize that this is a "living document," open to consultations and modifications, with individual contributions not necessarily representing the views of their affiliated institutions.

A Call for a New Constituent Assembly

The political vision articulated in the report extends well beyond mere reforms to current structures. "In the medium and long term, Cuba will require a new constituent assembly to serve as a platform for a national debate that has been postponed for decades," the authors argue.

The goal is to lay the groundwork for a "democratic and pluralistic system." This process would follow an initial phase where, according to the Working Group's roadmap, all political prisoners should be freed, repressive laws repealed, and rights to expression, protest, and movement guaranteed.

Embracing a "Social Market Economy"

The political transformation would have an economic counterpart. The Working Group echoes Cuban economists in advocating for a "social market economy" that fosters prosperity and equitable distribution among various sectors and regions of the country.

This proposal marks a substantial shift from the existing socialist model, suggesting new legislation to ensure diverse forms of ownership, including private property. The report identifies the current private sector as one of Cuba's assets for reconstruction.

According to the document, this sector already employs about a third of the workforce and has managed to expand despite regulatory barriers, logistical challenges, and a harsh economic environment. The authors believe that the numerous private businesses established in recent years could play a crucial role in recovery.

Reforming Agriculture and Food Production

Agriculture is highlighted as a priority. The report recommends liberalizing the legal framework for land use to boost production and encourage both private and investor engagement in food production and distribution.

This suggestion is a response to the agricultural collapse described in the document. Between 2019 and 2024, Cuba's agricultural output fell by 58%. Specific declines between 2017 and 2024 include a 97% drop in pork, 75% in rice, 80% in beans, 56% in milk, 69% in vegetables, and 46% in root crops.

Currently, Cuba imports over 70% of its food, according to figures from the Working Group. The proposed economic reconstruction would thus require altering long-standing agricultural policies to prioritize food security as an investment focus.

The Diaspora: A Source of Capital and Expertise

One of the document's most significant conceptual shifts is moving beyond viewing overseas Cubans primarily as remittance sources. "Cuba is a transnational nation," states the report, which includes both island residents and the diaspora as part of the national community.

The authors suggest that Cubans abroad could provide capital, expertise, professional networks, and business experience to revitalize existing capacities in sectors like tourism, pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, and food production. The report notes that many private Cuban businesses have already thrived due to family and professional links with diaspora entrepreneurs and investors.

Moreover, the diaspora could leverage its influence to advocate for the liberalization of U.S. trade and credit policies toward Cuba and secure economic resources for reconstruction.

Rejoining International Financial Institutions

The Working Group also believes that a transforming Cuba should reengage with major international financial institutions. The document explicitly mentions the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), and the Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean (CAF).

Access to these institutions would enable Cuba to secure resources for rebuilding critical services and infrastructure, including the electrical grid, hospitals, healthcare, education, housing construction and repair, transportation, and roads.

However, the authors caution that economic opening should not lead to a reconstruction benefiting only those with access to foreign currency and capital. "Normalization without equity and inclusion is not possible," the document asserts.

Addressing Confiscated Properties

The transformation of economic relations with the United States would also require tackling a long-standing issue from the early years of the Revolution: confiscated properties.

The report suggests establishing "transparent and internationally recognized procedures" to address these claims, acknowledging the difficulty of resolving the issue while considering the interests of both diaspora Cubans and those currently residing on the island.

The document even contemplates that the diaspora could eventually contribute to overturning the Helms-Burton Act, which since 1996 has significantly restricted a U.S. president's ability to independently normalize economic relations with Cuba.

Private Capital for Social Institutions

The proposal extends private initiative beyond business activities. The Working Group advocates for the legalization and promotion of nonprofit private associations that can support museums, libraries, universities, schools, hospitals, and other service centers.

"Regulated private philanthropy, benefiting from tax concessions, should be mobilized as a significant actor in the country's reconstruction," the report states. This idea introduces private and philanthropic funding sources into institutions that have long relied primarily on the state.

A Simultaneous Political and Economic Transformation

The model outlined by the Working Group does not merely swap state planning for an unregulated market. It combines representative democracy, political pluralism, private ownership, market dynamics, social protection, and explicit policies to reduce inequalities.

The new institutional framework should also pay special attention to racism and racial inequality, taking cues from affirmative action bodies and policies in other Latin American countries, particularly Brazil.

All these elements form part of a challenging scenario, the report acknowledges, requiring the participation of actors with deeply opposing positions: the island's authorities, the opposition, civil society, the diaspora, the United States, and the international community.

Nevertheless, the proposal clearly defines the intended outcome: a democratic and pluralistic Cuba with private ownership and a social market economy, reconnected with international financial institutions, and where millions of diasporic Cubans actively contribute to the country’s reconstruction.