A collective of academics, economists, activists, and experts from Harvard University has unveiled a strategic proposal to address the severe crisis in Cuba. This plan includes a broad amnesty for political prisoners and a call for a new Constituent Assembly in both the mid-term and long-term.
Released on September 10, the document titled "Harvard Working Group Report on Cuba's Future" starts with a stark assessment: Cuba is facing an economic, political, demographic, energy, health, food, educational, and infrastructural crisis threatening its stability and future.
The authors clarify that the report is a "living document, under construction," subject to consultation, review, and modification. The contributions reflect the individual participants' views and do not necessarily represent the institutions they are affiliated with.
Economic Collapse and Population Drain
The report attributes Cuba's economic bankruptcy to "decades of inefficiency and misguided economic and investment policies," though it also notes that recent U.S. sanctions have worsened the crisis's impact on the Cuban population.
Between 2019 and 2024, according to data compiled by the Working Group, Cuba's GDP shrank by 11%, agricultural output dropped by 58%, and manufacturing declined by 42%. Sugar production plummeted by 87%.
The decline is even more apparent in key food supplies. From 2017 to 2024, pork production fell by 97%, rice by 75%, beans by 80%, milk by 56%, vegetables by 69%, and root crops by 46%. Cuba now imports over 70% of its food, including products historically linked to its national identity, like sugar and coffee.
Adding to the economic downfall is what the report terms a "demographic vacuum." The net migration from 2013 to 2024 surpasses three million people, compared to the 11.1 million residents recorded in the 2012 census. This is coupled with extremely low birth rates and a death rate exceeding births since at least 2020.
The result is a rapidly aging population: approximately 25% of Cubans are now over the age of 60, according to the report's cited figures.
Failing Services and Infrastructure
The Working Group highlights a state increasingly incapable of delivering basic services. Deterioration affects the power grid, water supply, transportation, waste management, hospitals, and schools.
Regarding food security, the document references a 2026 study by the Cuban Observatory for Human Rights, which found that eight out of ten people skip one of the three daily meals due to lack of resources.
Housing is another major issue. The housing deficit exceeds 800,000 units, with a significant portion of the housing stock in poor or fair condition. The report also points to the deterioration of roads, bridges, and railways.
The authors contrast these deficiencies with the government's investment strategy. From 2014 to 2024, tourism received between 25% and 50% of the country's total investment. In 2024, investments in tourism were 14 times greater than those in agriculture and 11 times more than those in health, social assistance, and education combined.
Political Core of the Crisis
Beyond economic statistics, the report places the political issue at the crisis's heart: the severe erosion of the Cuban government's legitimacy, its inability to address national problems, and the presence of authoritarian structures that limit entrepreneurship, artistic creation, scientific activity, and public debate.
Special attention is given to the government's response to the July 11, 2021, protests, recalling Miguel Díaz-Canel's "combat order," followed by a repressive wave and the imprisonment of hundreds of demonstrators.
According to Prisoners Defenders data cited in the report, as of June 2026, Cuba had over 1,300 political prisoners.
The authors also question the rule of law's effectiveness under the 2019 Constitution, highlighting the Communist Party's constitutional supremacy, the lack of genuine checks and balances, and systematic violations of rights like freedom of speech, press, association, and movement.
The report calls for the repeal of laws such as Decrees 349, 370, and 35, which are used to restrict artistic creation, public expression, and online content dissemination.
GAESA: A State Within a State
The military conglomerate GAESA is singled out as a critical issue. The report argues that it operates as a "state within the state," beyond ordinary institutional controls, with its accounts neither public nor subject to effective audit by the National Assembly.
GAESA controls strategic sectors including tourism, energy, telecommunications, finance, real estate, supermarkets, and remittances, as well as certain industrial segments.
The document also criticizes the opacity of discussions between the Cuban and U.S. governments, noting the involvement of individuals linked to the Castro family without known governmental roles, such as Colonel Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, Raúl Castro's grandson, who is associated with the military-business complex.
Initial Steps: Amnesty for Political Prisoners
In response to this bleak scenario, the Working Group asserts that "there is no solution" to Cuba's myriad crises without immediate political change and steps toward a transition government perceived as legitimate.
Their proposal starts with a particularly significant premise: Cuban authorities themselves should take the initiative and act as facilitators of a peaceful transition, with participation from civil society, the opposition, the diaspora, the United States, and the international community.
The first step would be a general and unconditional amnesty for political prisoners. This action should be accompanied by decriminalizing forms of protest, thought, and expression recognized even by the current Constitution, as well as removing extralegal restrictions applied to so-called "regulated" individuals.
"Any Cuban who wishes should be able to leave and return to their homeland," the document states.
The Role of the United States
The report suggests that an amnesty should elicit an "immediate, positive, and strong" response from Washington, starting with lifting sanctions affecting fuel supplies and followed by resources aimed at stabilizing the economy and promoting reforms.
The authors argue that the Cuban crisis predates the hardening of U.S. policy and stems from deep internal causes, but they note that the Trump administration's sanctions have significantly worsened its humanitarian impacts.
The document even describes current U.S. policies towards Cuba as "explicitly imperial" and criticizes the U.S. for providing humanitarian aid while maintaining measures that, according to the authors, exacerbate the emergency.
Private Sector and Diaspora in Cuba's Reconstruction
In economic terms, the report emphasizes the significant role of Cuba's private sector, which already employs about a third of the workforce and has managed to thrive despite regulatory restrictions and a challenging environment.
The proposal includes liberalizing the legal framework for the productive use of land, encouraging private food production, and leveraging the diaspora's capital, expertise, and business networks.
It also suggests reinstating Cuba's membership in international financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank, and CAF, along with establishing transparent processes to resolve claims related to confiscated properties.
The document envisions that the diaspora could help liberalize U.S. trade and credit policies and eventually promote the repeal of the Helms-Burton Act.
The resources acquired should be prioritized for electricity, hospitals, health services, education, housing, transport, and infrastructure, with policies aimed at preventing reconstruction from deepening existing inequalities.
A New Constitution and Social Market Economy
In the longer term, the Working Group advocates for convening a new Constituent Assembly to initiate a national debate postponed for decades and lay the groundwork for a democratic and pluralistic system.
Economically, it supports a "social market economy" capable of generating prosperity with greater equity within a legal framework recognizing various forms of ownership, including private property.
The proposal also emphasizes the essential role of Cubans living abroad. The document rejects reducing the diaspora to a source of remittances and defines Cuba as a transnational nation comprising both those on the island and those residing abroad.
The Working Group acknowledges that building consensus among such diverse actors will be challenging, but considers that a negotiated and peaceful democratic transition is the only viable solution in an untenable situation.
"We are aware that a democratic transition in Cuba requires the shared will of diverse actors, including the island's government, the U.S. administration, diaspora organizations, the international community, opposition sectors, and civil society," the report concludes. "Building that consensus will not be easy. But for Cuba and its people, it is simply the only option."
Understanding the Proposed Transition in Cuba
What are the main goals of the Harvard Group's proposal for Cuba?
The proposal aims for a democratic transition in Cuba, starting with a general amnesty for political prisoners and the establishment of a new Constituent Assembly. It focuses on political change and the involvement of various stakeholders, including the Cuban government, international community, and civil society.
How does the proposal view the role of the United States in Cuba's transition?
The proposal suggests that the U.S. should respond positively to a Cuban amnesty by lifting sanctions and providing resources to stabilize the Cuban economy. Despite the internal roots of Cuba's crisis, U.S. sanctions are seen as exacerbating humanitarian issues.
What economic reforms does the Harvard Group advocate for Cuba?
The report advocates for the liberalization of regulations affecting the private sector, reintegration into international financial institutions, and leveraging the diaspora's resources. It supports a social market economy to promote equitable prosperity.