Economist Suggests Cuba Needs a Decade of 5% Growth: Is This Feasible?

Economist Elías Amor has issued a stark warning: Cuba must achieve a minimum annual growth rate of 5% in its GDP over the next ten years to modernize its infrastructure and improve living standards to match those of its Caribbean neighbors. He describes this objective as an "economic miracle," starkly contrasting with the island's current dire circumstances.

In an interview with Tania Costa, Amor emphasized, "The Cuban economy needs to grow at a GDP rate of around 5% for at least a decade. This will be our economic miracle." He discussed the future of Cuba's economy in the aftermath of the communist system's collapse.

The Urgent Need for Infrastructure Overhaul

Amor outlines an extensive list of priorities for the nation: "Roads, energy, buildings, transportation, seaports, airlines—everything needs an overhaul." The deterioration of these infrastructures is well-documented. Official reports in 2023 revealed that 75% of the country's roads were in poor or fair condition, and by January 2025, Transport Minister Eduardo Rodríguez Dávila admitted the failure of the road recovery program.

Setting Ambitious Economic Targets

Amor has set a specific goal: reaching the per capita income level of the Dominican Republic within five years. "I would be satisfied if we could reach the Dominican Republic's level in five years," he stated. In 2025, the Dominican Republic had a GDP per capita of approximately $11,059, according to the World Bank, with growth projections between 3.6% and 4.5% for 2026.

The gap between this aspiration and Cuba's current economic status is stark. The ECLAC forecasts a 10.3% contraction for Cuba in 2026, the steepest decline in Latin America and the Caribbean for that year, according to the regional body.

Economic Forecasts and Challenges

This figure appears even more alarming when compared to earlier estimates: in April 2026, the ECLAC anticipated a -6.5% decline, while The Economist Intelligence Unit estimated -7.2%. The Cuban government's official projection was a modest 1% growth for 2026, a figure economist Pedro Monreal criticized, noting that only 51% of the GDP plans were met in 2025.

The preceding year wasn't any better. According to the Center for Cuban Economic Studies, the economy contracted by 5% in 2025, placing Cuba and Haiti as the only countries in the region with GDP declines during that period, as reported by the ECLAC.

Amor also highlighted that the United States is Cuba's natural trading partner, though he advocated for maintaining the Cuban peso alongside the dollar in any potential economic opening.

Political and Economic Conversations

This discussion occurs just weeks after a meeting on August 26th between Miguel Díaz-Canel and private sector representatives, where the government itself acknowledged ongoing "prejudices and obstacles" against private entrepreneurs on the island.

"Cuba has to grow at that pace," Amor insisted, emphasizing that without sustained growth, any promises of modernization will remain empty.