Atlantic Ocean Sees Unprecedented Calm: No Hurricanes by September 11, 2026

This year's Atlantic hurricane season has marked an unprecedented chapter in meteorological history. For the first time since the beginning of the satellite era, the Atlantic basin reached September 11 without a single hurricane, breaking the previous record held by the years 2002 and 2013.

The United States' National Hurricane Center (NHC) confirmed this milestone: "As of 8:00 a.m. EDT this morning, we have officially surpassed the satellite-era record (1966-present) for the latest formation of the first hurricane during an Atlantic hurricane season, previously held by hurricanes Gustav (2002) and Humberto (2013)." The organization added that the Atlantic remains calm and no tropical cyclone formation is expected in the next week.

The numbers highlight the magnitude of this phenomenon. According to Michael Lowry of Local 10, the seasonal activity measured by Accumulated Cyclonic Energy stands at only 4.4 units, compared to a historical average of 60.5 units for this date, marking "the lowest level of any recorded hurricane season in modern history." In a typical season, eight named storms and three hurricanes would have already formed; this year, only five tropical storms have been recorded: Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, and Edouard.

El Niño's Impact on the Calm Atlantic

The primary driver behind this unprecedented calm is the El Niño phenomenon, which in 2026 is on track to become one of the most intense since 1950. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has labeled this episode as potentially "historic," predicting it might surpass the intensity of all events recorded since that year.

The mechanism is precise: El Niño alters wind patterns in the upper atmosphere over the Atlantic, which "increases wind shear, meaning changes in wind speed and direction at different altitudes," explained BBC weather presenter Simon King. This shear disrupts storms and prevents them from intensifying. The phenomenon is expected to reach its peak intensity in November or December.

Additionally, Sahara dust plays a role: over the past week, a vast layer of dry air transported from the African desert has traveled thousands of miles over the Atlantic, further hindering any cyclonic development.

Pacific in Contrast

While the Atlantic remains unusually tranquil, the eastern Pacific is experiencing an intense season: 13 named storms, five hurricanes, and three major hurricanes, numbers close to those of a normal full season, according to the BBC.

Cuba: Cautious Relief Amidst the Calm

For Cuba, the Atlantic record comes at a time of particular vulnerability. The island is still recovering from Hurricane Melissa, which affected over 2.7 million Cubans in eastern regions in October 2025, damaging more than 60,000 homes, 1,552 educational centers, and 461 health facilities.

Cuba's Institute of Meteorology (INSMET) forecasted a less active season than usual in May but maintained a 40% chance of at least one hurricane affecting the island and a 75% chance of at least one tropical storm.

The NHC warned that the current calm does not guarantee a peaceful end: "It's important to remember that roughly half of the normal season's activity occurs after today. In fact, there has never been a season in the satellite era without the formation of at least two hurricanes. Late-starting years can still produce hurricane impacts, so stay prepared." The Atlantic hurricane season concludes on November 30.