Nicolás Maduro was forewarned about potential U.S. action against him. Skeptical of the threat, just six days later, American forces entered Caracas and captured both him and Cilia Flores.
Eight months on, signals from Havana indicate that the Cuban regime is keen to avoid making the same mistake.
Enhanced Protection for Cuban Leaders
The Cuban leadership has reportedly bolstered the security measures for Raúl Castro and Miguel Díaz-Canel. Meanwhile, the head of Personal Security recently posed the question of what would happen if someone attempted to "abduct or assassinate" a key leader.
However, Venezuela taught Havana another lesson. The U.S. not only ousted Maduro but also found an ally within the chavista ranks, Delcy Rodríguez, to manage the aftermath.
Searching for Cuba's Equivalent to Delcy
The Trump administration is reportedly seeking a similar figure within the Cuban regime. Intelligence agencies have warned that identifying a "Cuban Delcy" presents a far greater challenge.
According to an intelligence report cited by Infobae, Vladimir Padrino López had warned Maduro on December 28, 2025, about the possibility of a U.S. military operation. The then Defense Minister advised canceling holiday leaves, strengthening military units, and heightening operational activity.
Maduro ignored these warnings. The report notes that intermediaries with U.S. connections assured him that Washington would not take military action against him or his family.
U.S. Operation and Aftermath in Venezuela
On January 3, U.S. forces executed the operation resulting in Maduro’s capture. In this action, 32 Cubans associated with the military and security apparatus deployed by Havana in Venezuela were killed.
In August, a New York Times investigation, based on U.S. officials, disclosed that Cuba had increased security measures for Raúl Castro and Díaz-Canel to complicate any efforts to capture or kill them.
Washington has not publicly ruled out this possibility. In June, when questioned about a potential operation against Díaz-Canel similar to that executed against Maduro, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth stated that the U.S. had "options for all scenarios."
The Challenge of Finding a Pragmatic Intermediary
There is no public information indicating that the U.S. president has ordered any operation against the Cuban elite. Yet, Havana seems to have considered this possibility in its strategic calculations.
This past weekend, Brigadier General Emir Mesa Corona, head of the Directorate of Personal Security, commemorated the 32 deceased in Venezuela and questioned what the FAR, MININT, Military Counterintelligence, and "every revolutionary Cuban" would do if an attempt was made to "abduct or assassinate" one of their principal leaders.
Raúl Castro also emphasized that the blood of those who died in Venezuela "must never be forgotten" and should serve as "the guide to follow" for Personal Security.
Cuba's Internal and External Challenges
The men who perished during the operation that failed to prevent Maduro's capture are now seen as models of resistance for those who must prevent a similar scenario in Cuba.
The U.S. operation in Venezuela did not end with Maduro’s capture. Delcy Rodríguez assumed the interim presidency and became the figure within the chavista apparatus with whom Washington could engage to manage the transition.
The Trump administration has reportedly tasked intelligence agencies with identifying current or former officials within the Cuban regime who could act as pragmatic interlocutors in a potential transition, akin to Delcy Rodríguez.
Nevertheless, intelligence agencies have cautioned the Trump administration that replicating this model in Cuba will be significantly more challenging.
Cuba’s structure is perceived as more closed, rigid, and cohesive than Venezuela’s, and U.S. agencies have not yet identified a figure clearly capable of playing this role.
Potential Candidates Under Scrutiny
Among the potential candidates for a hypothetical "Cuban Delcy," Óscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga, Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Trade and Foreign Investment, has been mentioned. CiberCuba highlighted since January his profile as a figure to watch amid a possible transition. His rapid ascent, family ties to the Castros, and economic profile have placed him under special scrutiny.
However, subsequent reports pointed to a paradox: Havana might be positioning Pérez-Oliva as a possible successor, while Washington harbors reservations about his suitability due to his close ties to the Castro power core.
Names such as Interior Minister Lázaro Alberto Álvarez Casas and Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, "El Cangrejo," Raúl Castro’s grandson and trusted confidant, have also surfaced.
Both maintained contacts with CIA Director John Ratcliffe during his visit to Havana in May. Yet, there is no public evidence suggesting Washington has selected any of them as a candidate to lead a transition.
The dissemination of these names could also have a particularly uncomfortable effect on a system built around loyalty: fostering suspicions within the leadership about who might be willing to negotiate with Washington if the time comes.
Thus, the Venezuelan experience presents two distinct challenges for the Cuban regime. The first is external: preventing the U.S. from executing a similar operation to capture one of its leaders. The second is internal: preventing Washington from finding a figure within the system capable of assuming the role that Delcy Rodríguez took on after Maduro’s fall.
Recent signals indicate that Havana is keenly focused on both.
Raúl and Díaz-Canel reportedly have increased protection; Personal Security proclaims its readiness to fight; the 32 deceased in Venezuela are elevated as examples; and Díaz-Canel has warned of possible military action, vowing resistance "to the last drop of blood."
Simultaneously, reports of the U.S. search for a "Cuban Delcy" place the movements within the elite under close scrutiny.
Maduro received a warning and believed the U.S. would not dare. Havana appears to have drawn a different conclusion: the Venezuelan precedent is real, and the danger lies not only with external forces but also with those willing to negotiate from within.
Understanding U.S. and Cuban Political Dynamics
What led to Nicolás Maduro's capture by the U.S.?
Maduro was captured after ignoring warnings about a potential U.S. military operation, leading to his capture in Caracas by American forces.
How is Cuba responding to potential U.S. threats?
Cuba has reportedly increased security for its leaders and is keen to avoid repeating Venezuela's mistakes, as seen with enhanced protection for Raúl Castro and Miguel Díaz-Canel.
Why is finding a "Delcy Rodríguez" in Cuba challenging for the U.S.?
Cuba's political structure is more closed and cohesive than Venezuela's, making it difficult for U.S. intelligence to identify a figure capable of playing a similar intermediary role.