Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly admitted to those in his inner circle that he fears for his life if the war in Ukraine ends without achieving the Kremlin's minimum objectives.
"They will hang me," Putin allegedly confided to several of his close associates at some point during the conflict, according to an insider source quoted by The Economist in an analysis published in late August.
The alleged confession is detailed in an article by the British magazine that explores the reasons behind the Russian leader's potential choice to escalate the conflict further, despite the significant human, economic, and political costs Russia faces due to the invasion.
The Dangers of Appearing Weak
According to The Economist, one of the main reasons behind Putin's reluctance to back down is not solely linked to his geopolitical goals but also to the inherent nature of the power structure he has built in Russia.
The publication argues that the Kremlin operates under a logic where displaying weakness is extremely perilous for the person at the helm. While the Russian system may have a high tolerance for violence, it is far less forgiving of failure.
In this context, Putin might believe that ending the war without achieving at least his basic objective—complete control over Ukraine's eastern Donbas region—could jeopardize not only his position in the Kremlin but also his personal safety, according to the analysis.
It is while explaining this fear that The Economist includes the emphatic statement attributed to the Russian leader: "They will hang me."
The magazine does not identify the source who attributed these words to Putin nor specify when or to whom the comment was made, making it impossible to independently verify the statement.
Growing Discontent Within Russia
The analysis also highlights a decline in the passive support that has allowed the Kremlin to keep the war somewhat distant from the everyday lives of many Russians for years.
Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries, logistical centers, and other facilities within Russian territory, along with internet restrictions imposed by authorities, are reportedly eroding this sense of normalcy.
According to data from the independent Levada Center cited by the magazine, 57% of Russians currently describe the country's situation as "tense." The concerns mentioned include the war, deaths, mobilization, drone attacks, and uncertainty about the future.
Dissatisfaction is also said to be rising among segments of the Russian elite. One source consulted by The Economist suggests that the issue is not only the state of the economy or the lack of a decisive military victory but the time consumed by a war approaching five years.
Another source describes a growing perception among the elites that Putin's leadership is losing some of the strength that has sustained it for decades.
Escalation as a Potential Solution
In light of this situation, sources close to the Kremlin cited by the publication claim that Putin decided over the summer to opt for escalation.
Among the possibilities mentioned are intensifying hybrid operations and sabotage against Ukraine's allies, targeting routes used to transport European supplies, and increasing pressure on facilities linked to military production.
However, Western intelligence agencies believe that the Kremlin would not deliberately seek a direct military confrontation with NATO, according to the magazine.
Within Ukraine, the escalation could primarily involve an intensification of tactics already used by Russia. The Russian Defense Ministry announced on August 30th that it was preparing a massive attack on Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
Russian sources cited by The Economist also assert that Putin is willing to send an additional 300,000 to 400,000 men to the front lines. The Kremlin might avoid announcing a new national mobilization and instead rely on regional recruitment and pressure mechanisms.
The analysis concludes that none of these measures would resolve the structural problems facing Russia. Instead, a new escalation could increase the suffering of the population and fuel greater instability both inside and outside the country.
Key Concerns About Russia's Strategy in Ukraine
Why is Putin considering escalating the conflict in Ukraine?
Putin may be considering escalation to avoid showing weakness, which could threaten his position and safety. The Kremlin's power structure is less forgiving of failure than it is of violence.
What are the potential risks for Putin if the war in Ukraine ends without success?
If the war ends without achieving key objectives, such as control over the Donbas region, Putin risks losing his position and personal safety due to the perception of failure.
How is the situation affecting the Russian population?
The ongoing conflict and associated policies have led to increased tension among the Russian population, with concerns about the war, economic conditions, and future stability.