As August comes to a close, Cuba's electrical grid teeters on the edge of a near-record collapse. The state-run Union Eléctrica forecasts a massive power outage of 2,410 MW during Monday's peak hours, just shy of the 2,411 MW record set on August 11, which equaled leaving approximately 73% of the nation without power at the same time.
Sunday's situation was similarly dire. According to the official report, the service was disrupted due to a capacity deficit for the entire 24-hour period, maintaining outages throughout the early morning hours. The actual peak reached 2,296 MW at 10:40 PM.
Monday night's peak forecast suggests an almost complete collapse of the generation capacity. The system is expected to provide a mere 910 MW against a projected demand of 3,300 MW, marking a historical gap.
The Critical State of Power Plants
The condition of the thermoelectric plants is alarming. Breakdowns have affected units 5, 6, and 8 at the Máximo Gómez plant in Mariel; unit 2 at the Ernesto Guevara de la Serna plant in Santa Cruz; unit 2 at the Lidio Ramón Pérez plant in Felton; and unit 6 at the Antonio Maceo plant in Renté.
Alongside these failures, numerous units are under maintenance: unit 3 of Ernesto Guevara de la Serna, units 5 and 6 of Antonio Maceo, and unit 5 of the Diez de Octubre plant in Nuevitas.
Distributed Generation and Renewable Energy Shortfalls
Distributed generation offers no relief, as 106 distributed generation centers are offline due to fuel unavailability. The report also confirms the shutdown of the Regla and Melones barges, as well as the Central Fuel facilities in Mariel and Moa.
Photovoltaic solar parks generated 4,331 MW/h on Sunday with a maximum output of 673 MW, insufficient to make up for the accumulated thermal deficit.
A Summer of Record Power Outages
The end of August solidifies a summer marked by successive records. The surge began with 2,341 MW on July 8, continued with 2,380 MW on July 29, and peaked at 2,411 MW in early August.
This month also witnessed at least the sixth complete collapse of the National Electric System (SEN) this year, recorded on August 2, with total national disconnections plunging entire provinces into darkness for days.
Structural Issues and Historical Context
The ongoing deterioration is due to structural problems that have been building for decades: extreme aging of thermoelectric infrastructure, chronic fuel shortages, lack of spare parts, and sustained underfunding of the energy sector under Cuba's communist regime.
According to the historical record of SEN disruptions, 2026 has already seen at least seven total system disconnections, making this year the most critical in the island's recent electrical history.
Understanding Cuba's Power Crisis
What is causing the power outages in Cuba?
The power outages are primarily due to structural issues within the Cuban energy sector, including aging infrastructure, fuel shortages, lack of spare parts, and chronic underfunding.
How severe are the power outages in Cuba?
The outages are severe, with recent forecasts predicting shortages that affect up to 73% of the country simultaneously. This situation is among the worst in Cuba's recent history.
Are renewable energy sources helping to alleviate the crisis?
While solar parks are contributing some energy, their output is insufficient to significantly reduce the deficit caused by the failing thermoelectric plants.