Renowned historian and doctor in Historical Sciences, Ivette García González, shared an insightful analysis on her Facebook profile titled "Cuba's Crisis Worsens, But Alone It Doesn't Mobilize," asserting that the deteriorating conditions on the island do not inherently ensure any political transformation.
The former full professor at the University of Havana bases her argument on a historically proven concept: "A crisis doesn't inherently lead to change. What a crisis mainly generates is exhaustion and spontaneous reactions driven by human survival instincts."
To support her thesis, García González references global hunger statistics from the World Food Program of UNHCR for 2020, which reported that hunger caused 20.5 million deaths—one in seven—led to stunted growth in 58.9 million individuals, and resulted in low birth weight in 49.5 million infants.
Rather than using these statistics as a form of consolation, the academic transforms them into a warning: the plight of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa is more severe than Cuba's, yet those nations persist. She emphasizes that extreme poverty does not automatically incite political change.
The Naturalization of Suffering
One of the most striking arguments in her text is the normalization of suffering. García González points out that the Cuban regime deliberately exploits humans' adaptive abilities: "Incredibly, a miserable state of life can also become normalized […]. It's a normalization that the regime fosters, bets on, and even showcases as 'creative resistance.' But this is a fallacy, as people die both physically and spiritually."
The historian precisely outlines the government's strategy: managing scarcity in a calculated manner, offering "crumbs" of humanitarian aid, restricting but not completely cutting off internet access, and rationing electricity to keep the population on the brink without collapsing. "If everyone perishes, who will work? Who will they command? It's that macabre," she writes.
An Unprecedented Material Crisis
This scenario unfolds within an unparalleled material crisis. Since 2020, the Cuban economy has contracted by over 15%, with an estimated 5% decline in 2025 and an even grimmer forecast for 2026. The electrical system has experienced several total blackouts this year, with daily deficits frequently exceeding 2,000 MW. Prisoners Defenders reported 1,327 political prisoners by the end of July, including minors.
García González also dismisses the temptation to compare Cuba with the world's worst scenarios: "Our comparison should not be with the worst, but with our neighbors (only Haiti fares worse, and not in every aspect) and at least with what we once were." She recalls that in 1958, Cuba surpassed most Latin American countries in key indicators, yet was overthrown by a revolution that promised change but resulted in "a worse dictatorship."
Rejection of Violence and Call for Civic Mobilization
The academic likewise rules out violence as a means of escape: "Violence as a method of struggle is globally rejected, and our own history shows that this path does not guarantee a transition from dictatorship to democracy."
The Thursday analysis is the latest in a series of reflections García González has published throughout 2026. In May, she argued that "neither Cuba is an exception, nor are dictatorships invincible" and proposed forming a National Civic Movement based on nonviolent struggle. On August 21, she concluded that "the time for reforms is over" and that Cuba requires a radical transformation, not further economic patches.
The text concludes with an open-ended question posed by the author herself—"What is the path forward?"—which refers back to her previous proposals for civic engagement. However, she delivers her bleakest diagnosis yet: "Even though every day seems like we can't get any worse, each day we do, and this trend will continue because we remain under a totalitarian dictatorship that only cares about citizen control, power preservation, and international image."
Understanding Cuba's Political Crisis
What does Ivette García González believe about the Cuban crisis?
Ivette García González believes that the worsening crisis in Cuba does not automatically lead to political change, as it primarily generates exhaustion and spontaneous human survival reactions.
Why does García González reject violence as a solution?
García González rejects violence because, on a global level, it is not seen as a viable solution, and history shows that it doesn't ensure a transition from dictatorship to democracy.
What alternative does García González propose?
She proposes the formation of a National Civic Movement that relies on nonviolent struggle to achieve political transformation in Cuba.