Cuban meteorologist José Rubiera shared an analysis on his YouTube channel this past Friday, cautioning that the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly—now downgraded to an open tropical wave—could potentially reorganize by early next week. The area of concern includes the Bahamas, northern Cuba, southern Florida, and the northern Gulf of Mexico.
The analysis coincided with the final official advisory issued by INSMET regarding Dolly, which ruled out any immediate tropical redevelopment.
While Rubiera did not dispute this short-term assessment, he urged vigilance over the medium term.
Understanding Dolly's Downgrade
Tropical Storm Dolly emerged on Thursday, August 27, with sustained winds reaching 65 km/h. However, it quickly weakened into a remnant low due to encountering what Rubiera described as a "completely hostile" environment.
Rubiera detailed the weakening process: "It passed over an oceanic buoy, which didn't detect western winds necessary for a closed circulation. For a closed circulation, there must be western winds from the south and eastern winds from the north to form the wind's circular pattern. The absence of western winds indicates an open tropical wave."
Adding to this was the presence of extremely dry air: "The dry air was entrenched here without an exit path. This could lead to further weakening as it approaches the Lesser Antilles."
The third challenge was a powerful vertical wind shear: "There is strong vertical air shear, with upper atmosphere winds of 80, 90, 100 km/h impacting the system and decapitating it. Development is impossible under these conditions."
Additionally, Dolly's rapid forward speed of 41 km/h was too fast for a tropical system to organize efficiently.
Conditions Favoring Possible Reorganization
On Friday, Dolly's remnants as a tropical wave were located approximately 1,580 km east of the Lesser Antilles.
Rubiera outlined its path before any potential reorganization: showers and storms in the Lesser Antilles by Sunday, reaching Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands by Sunday afternoon, and hitting the Dominican Republic by Monday morning.
Notably, after crossing Hispaniola, numerical models indicate a significant change: the cloud trail dissipates and reappears over the Bahamas and the Gulf of Mexico. Rubiera interprets this as a sign of possible reorganization.
The meteorologist compared the destructive conditions Dolly faced with the more favorable conditions it might encounter in this new area:
"The sea temperature is slightly higher here. The dry air and vertical shear are very weak. Therefore, there are excellent conditions for development, and the forward speed significantly reduces."
With this combination—sea temperatures above 30°C, minimal shear, and slower movement—Rubiera made a clear prediction:
"In the area from the north of the Dominican Republic to the Bahamas, northern Cuba, Florida, the Gulf of Mexico, and this Atlantic region, there could be a system regeneration, possibly a reformation of Dolly by early next week."
A Cautious Forecast, Not a Guarantee
Rubiera emphasized that this scenario is not guaranteed.
"I'm not saying it will happen. I'm saying some models suggest it, at least hinting, and logically, this area offers better conditions for development," he cautioned.
This stance contrasts with INSMET's latest advisory on Dolly, which stated, "Atmospheric conditions will continue to be unfavorable throughout its trajectory, so the system is not expected to regain tropical development."
The U.S. National Hurricane Center assigned a near 0% chance of development within 48 hours and only a 10% chance over the next seven days for Dolly's remnants.
Rubiera announced that, even though he has no scheduled broadcasts on Saturday or Sunday, he will remain vigilant.
"Even if we're not on air Saturday and Sunday, we'll keep monitoring it, and if necessary, we'll broadcast a special program," he concluded.
Frequently Asked Questions About Dolly's Potential Re-formation
What factors led to Dolly's initial weakening?
Dolly weakened due to a lack of western winds, extremely dry air, strong vertical wind shear, and a high forward speed.
Why does Rubiera believe Dolly might reform?
Rubiera suggests that the warmer sea temperatures, reduced wind shear, and slower movement in the Bahamas and Gulf of Mexico could create favorable conditions for Dolly's reformation.
How does Rubiera’s analysis differ from INSMET's advisory?
While INSMET ruled out tropical redevelopment, Rubiera highlighted potential medium-term conditions that might favor reformation, without claiming it as a certainty.