Impact of ICE Deportations: Study Warns of Rising Prices and Job Losses in the U.S.

A recent report links the actions of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to a widespread increase in the cost of goods and services across America, affecting everything from food and housing to healthcare.

The study, titled "End the ICE Tax" by America's Voice and released in early August, suggests that the reduction in the immigrant workforce due to immigration raids by the Trump administration is directly passing additional expenses onto American consumers.

This report, drawing on academic research from the Brookings Institution, the University of Pennsylvania, and the University of California at Irvine, introduces the term "ICE tax" to describe the economic burden that, according to America's Voice, deportations impose on various sectors and communities nationwide.

The figures are striking: healthcare costs have surged by 10.7%, landscaping services by 10.8%, and new home construction in the Northeast—where 23% of the sector's workforce is foreign-born—has seen increases up to 15.4% between the first quarter of 2025 and the same period in 2026.

In the food industry, price hikes have considerably exceeded core inflation, which was 2.6% over the 12 months leading up to June 2026. For instance, lettuce prices increased by 32.1% in that period; whole milk by 9.0%; apples by 7.1%; fresh citrus by 6.3%; and canned fruit by 7.9%.

Significant Employment Impact

The impact on employment is equally profound. According to the report, immigration measures enforced during 2025 may have resulted in the loss of approximately 668,000 jobs across the country. Of these, between 51,000 and 297,000 positions were held by U.S.-born workers, not immigrants.

The Brookings Institution, examining 86 metropolitan areas affected by ICE raids, estimated that average employment fell 0.73% below expectations following the operations, with each arrest linked to the loss of roughly 13 jobs in total.

In Texas, the construction sector experienced a 5% decline. Nationwide, permits for single-family homes dropped 9.5% from March 2025 to June 2026. In the five states most reliant on immigrant labor, construction employment decreased by 1.3%, while it increased by 3.3% elsewhere in the country.

Economic Disruption in Commerce

Analysis from the University of Pennsylvania estimated that ICE operations reduced retail visits by $8.1 billion and led to consumer spending losses ranging from $3.1 billion to $14 billion. In Minneapolis, the city estimated nearly $200 million in losses for local businesses within just two months.

Florida is among the states most susceptible to this disruption, with construction, hospitality, landscaping, and agriculture sectors particularly exposed. Raids in Miami's Little Havana and other areas of South Florida have heightened fear among immigrant communities, further diminishing commercial traffic even among those with legal status.

Dr. C. Daniel Pérez Listón, an economics professor at the University of Houston consulted by Telemundo 51, explained the mechanism: "A reduction in the workforce can decrease production and contribute to rising prices."

The Trump administration, however, argues that deportations enhance job access for U.S.-born workers and increase wages in certain manual trades, a stance not supported by the independent academic studies cited in America's Voice's report.