CiberCuba presents an in-depth analysis in the first of a four-part series.
Discussions about a potential transition in Cuba often revolve around one key question: What could trigger the end of the current regime? However, in the face of a possible crisis of governance, an upheaval, a negotiation, or a political opening, there's another critical question that's less frequently addressed: Is Cuba equipped to manage such a moment and prevent a crisis in leadership from evolving into a power vacuum?
CiberCuba has thoroughly examined an extensive collection of documents, roadmaps, legal projects, programs, academic studies, and proposals from independent civil society organizations both inside and outside the island. This investigation aims to piece together what has been envisioned regarding a potential transition in Cuba, identifying existing tools and what is still lacking.
This comprehensive study will be released in four parts. The first segment explores the various proposed pathways to transition—ranging from plebiscites and negotiations to ruptures, "law-to-law" transitions, provisional governments, and constituent processes.
The Routes to Transition: Diverse Approaches
The initial part of this investigation delves into the different routes that have been proposed to usher in a transition in Cuba. Some advocate for a plebiscite, others for negotiations or ruptures, and some propose utilizing existing legal mechanisms. Other suggestions include provisional governments, constitutional restorations, constituent processes, or hybrid solutions.
This diversity does not necessarily imply immaturity. Political transitions rarely adhere to a completely predictable itinerary. They can accelerate, deviate, or combine various mechanisms. A segment of the Cuban reflective process has been studying this uncertainty for years.
Legal Mechanisms and Initiatives
One prominent approach has been the use of existing legal mechanisms to initiate the transition. The Varela Project, spearheaded by Oswaldo Payá, is a fundamental precedent in this regard. This initiative utilized the citizen initiative provision in the Cuban Constitution to demand a referendum on freedom of expression and association, amnesty, new electoral laws, and broader private sector opportunities.
Later, Payá's circle developed a Transition Program that included a referendum, a transitional government, a Fundamental Transit Law, a Constituent Assembly, and elections. The notion of a "law-to-law" transition has resurfaced in various contexts, with Programa Cuba publishing a work in 2021 by Yaxis Cires exploring a legal exit strategy to mitigate uncertainty and social costs.
Historical Context and Civil Society's Role
The contemplation of organizing change is not a new endeavor. In 1995, Concilio Cubano united numerous opposition organizations in a concerted effort. Their declaration advocated for a peaceful transition to a democratic state of law, amnesty for political prisoners, legal reforms, and participation from all Cubans, including the diaspora.
Subsequent initiatives like Otro18, D Frente, Proyecto Emilia, and Cuba11J have emerged, each with varying strategies for mobilization, electoral reform, and democratization. The ongoing question remains: how to transform a collection of organizations and demands into a political process capable of establishing common rules for change.
Potential Scenarios and Their Implications
From plebiscites to negotiated openings, a variety of potential scenarios have been considered. The Acuerdo de Liberación, signed in 2026 by Pasos de Cambio and the Asamblea de la Resistencia Cubana, together with over 50 organizations, outlines a three-stage process: Liberation, Stabilization and Reconstruction, and Democratization.
In contrast, Cuba Decide has long advocated for a binding plebiscite, led by Rosa María Payá, as a starting point for transition leading to competitive elections. This proposal seeks to address the fundamental question of where the citizen mandate for change originates.
Concluding Thoughts: Preparedness and Challenges
Despite the lack of a unified alternative government or universally recognized opposition authority, the notion that Cuba's civil society is unprepared for a transition is increasingly untenable. Various proposals for plebiscites, negotiations, ruptures, and hybrid models, along with plans for provisional governments and legal frameworks, demonstrate a rich tapestry of thought and preparation.
The maturity of this corpus lies not in a singular recipe but in the availability of well-considered responses to different scenarios. The next step is to transform this intellectual wealth into a cohesive political architecture capable of guiding the transition.
The upcoming installment of this series will focus on existing proposals for governing and rebuilding Cuba during a potential transition, exploring the practical challenges of maintaining essential services and ensuring continuity.
Key Questions About Cuba's Potential Transition
What are the proposed pathways for Cuba's transition?
Proposed pathways include plebiscites, negotiations, ruptures, "law-to-law" transitions, provisional governments, and constituent processes.
How has the Cuban civil society prepared for a potential transition?
Cuban civil society has prepared by developing a wide range of proposals addressing legal, political, and economic aspects of transition, drawing from both domestic and international experiences.
Why is the concept of "law-to-law" transition significant?
The "law-to-law" transition aims to use existing legal frameworks to initiate change, potentially reducing uncertainty and social costs, as seen in the Varela Project and subsequent initiatives.