Ivette García González, a Cuban historian and academic, recently published an article on the CubaxCuba platform asserting that the reformist cycle in Cuba is definitively over. She argues that the nation requires a fundamental transformation of its single-party system, rather than economic stopgaps.
In her piece, titled "The Old Cuban Dilemma: Reform vs. Revolution," García González—a Ph.D. in Historical Sciences and former professor at the University of Havana—claims the regime has perpetually recycled a formula of "crisis-reform-repression of reforms" to maintain the untouchable political power of the Party/Government/State triad, which "considers its people as mere inhabitants, not citizens."
"If the crisis deepens with each reform cycle, it's clear that the time for reform is over," García González writes. She highlights the failure of the current economic, political, and social model and stresses that the Cuban people, who should be sovereign, are prevented from changing it.
Historical Parallels and Regime Longevity
The academic draws historical parallels between the failed reform cycles of the 19th century—before 1868 and between 1878 and 1895—and those of the 20th century—early 1930s and late 1950s—to argue that when reforms fail to bring real solutions, radical change prevails.
García González references Steven Levitsky's book, "Revolution and Dictatorship," to explain the longevity of the Cuban regime. She notes that authoritarian regimes born from revolutions last longer than other types of dictatorships because they start from scratch, establishing structures based on loyalty to the emerging power group. Cuba, she emphasizes, is a prime example of this phenomenon.
The "Troika" of Authoritarian Regimes
She places Cuba within the "Troika" of Latin American nations—alongside Nicaragua and Venezuela—describing them as a "strange family of underdeveloped dictatorships" that share common traits: dismantling of electoral democracy, suppression of journalism, rampant corruption, economic self-blockade, and a pattern of behavior aimed at survival through repression, imprisonment, and exile.
Critique of Economic Measures
The article harshly critiques the 176 economic measures announced by the government in June 2026. García González describes them as a "fraudulent change" and "an assault on citizenship," purely economic as always, aimed at preserving power amid extreme crisis, to gain breathing space and time.
The academic's assessment aligns with the sustained collapse observed: the Cuban Economy Study Center estimated a 5% economic decline in 2025, with a cumulative contraction of over 15% since 2020, and the Economic Intelligence Unit forecasts another 7.2% decline for this year.
Simultaneously, Prisoners Defenders recorded 1,327 political prisoners by July 2026, a historic high, and the Cuban Conflict Observatory reported 1,415 protests and critical expressions in that month alone.
Proposed Path to Genuine Transition
Against this backdrop, García González suggests three interconnected immediate measures for a genuine transition: full freedom for the private sector and foreign trade with real legal guarantees and separation of powers; recognition of civil society independent of the state; and the effective exercise of basic freedoms—expression, assembly, association, press—along with the release of all political prisoners.
This article is part of a series of analyses released by the author throughout 2026. In May, she argued that dictatorships are not invincible and proposed a National Civic Movement based on nonviolent resistance; in July, she claimed there is a "deep contradiction between the Cuban government and the Revolution it claims to represent." Her latest piece takes this line of reasoning to its most radical conclusion.
"What Cuba needs today are not reforms to correct abuses," García González concludes, "but rather to enable, as quickly as possible, not just a transfer of power, but the empowerment of the sovereign to build a new national project."
Understanding Cuba's Current Political Climate
Why does Ivette García González believe that reform cycles have failed in Cuba?
García González argues that the reform cycles in Cuba have failed because they do not produce real solutions, deepening the crisis despite repeated attempts. She believes the current system prevents meaningful change by keeping power concentrated within the Party/Government/State triad.
What does García González propose as a solution for Cuba's political situation?
García González suggests three interconnected measures: granting full freedom to the private sector and foreign trade with real legal guarantees, recognizing civil society independent of the state, and ensuring the effective exercise of basic freedoms along with the release of all political prisoners.
How does García González view the relationship between the Cuban government and the Revolution?
She points out a deep contradiction between the Cuban government and the Revolution it claims to represent, suggesting that the government's actions have diverged from the revolutionary ideals it once purported to uphold.