In July 2026, the year-on-year inflation rate in Cuba surged to 20.70%, as reported by the Consumer Price Index monthly bulletin from the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI).
This figure exceeds June's rate by more than two percentage points and is significantly higher than the 14.37% recorded in the same period last year.
Monthly inflation increased by 2.56% compared to June, and the cumulative rise since January reached 15.12%, indicating a consistent upward trend. The inflation rate has climbed steadily each month of 2026, starting from 12.52% in January to the current 20.70% in July.
The primary driver of this monthly increase was the rise in prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages, which grew by 3.51% in July, accounting for 63.18% of the total Consumer Price Index increase.
Among the products with the most significant monthly variations were vegetable oil, crusty long bread, and beer.
On a category basis, the largest year-on-year increases were observed in Restaurants and Hotels (32.57%), followed by Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages (26.36%), Transportation (24.96%), Education (23.32%), and Housing Services (20.83%). Conversely, Health recorded only a 0.51% year-on-year increase and Communications 0.68%.
However, independent economists consider the official figures to underestimate the actual inflation rate. They argue that ONEI's statistics fail to accurately reflect the dynamics of the informal market and the private sector.
Economist Steve Hanke placed Cuba among the countries with the highest inflation rates worldwide, at 67% year-on-year, lagging only behind Venezuela, Iran, North Korea, and Sudan, in a chart released on Tuesday.
The price spiral traces back to the failed 2021 monetary reform, which unified the dual currency but caused costs to skyrocket. According to ONEI, prices on the island have quadrupled between that year and 2025.
The crisis worsened from January 2026 due to U.S. restrictions on fuel supplies. Cuba only produces enough crude oil to meet 40% of its energy needs. The fuel shortage has led to increased blackouts and paralyzed large sections of the state-run economy.
Projections for Cuba's GDP in 2026 are bleak, with the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) estimating a 6.5% decline.
To this challenging scenario, a new complication has been added: the July CPI figures do not yet account for the impact of price caps reinstated in August by several provincial governments.
The effects of this policy are already visible, with products disappearing from shelves, a sharp rise in food prices in the informal market, and closed businesses.
Economist Pedro Monreal warned that the 176 economic measures approved by the regime in June 2026 have been largely nullified by these provincial interventions, which replicate the same control mechanisms that have historically exacerbated shortages in Cuba.
Understanding Cuba's Inflation Crisis
What is the current inflation rate in Cuba?
As of July 2026, the year-on-year inflation rate in Cuba is 20.70%, according to the National Office of Statistics and Information (ONEI).
Which sector has contributed most to the inflation increase?
Food and non-alcoholic beverages have been the primary contributors, with prices rising by 3.51% in July 2026, making up 63.18% of the total increase in the Consumer Price Index.
How do independent economists view the official inflation figures?
Independent economists believe that the official figures underestimate the real inflation rate, as they do not adequately capture the dynamics of the informal market and the private sector.