Economist Likens Cuba to a Bankrupt Company: "Those with Resources Must Take Control"

Cuban economist Orlando Plá Tomás offers a stark metaphor to depict Cuba's dire situation: likening the island to a bankrupt corporation where those taking on the risks and providing resources should assume control, much like in any corporate merger. Plá shared this perspective in an interview with journalist Tania Costa for CiberCuba, where he discussed potential solutions for Cuba's economic crisis.

Residing in Mexico and specializing in fiscal policy and tax administration, Plá laid out his argument bluntly: "Cuba is a bankrupt company, and the decision must be made whether to take control or not." He urged an objective assessment of the nation, devoid of emotional bias—"with pain for all Cubans and without emotional interference."

To support his argument, Plá referenced a client whose company was acquired by American Express. He explained how the corporation took over, deciding which executives could remain and which needed to leave due to an inability to adapt to the new management style. "American Express arrives, takes over the company, and decides which executives can stay and which must go because they can't align with the new operational strategy," he detailed.

Economic Control Without Political Annexation

Applying this framework to Cuba, Plá suggested that a formal political annexation (to the United States) isn't necessary. Instead, a purely economic takeover could suffice. "It's conceivable that the United States might say: you can stay there and appear on television when possible, but from now on, you won't make any economic decisions nor control the National Bank or the country's financial and economic structure," he proposed.

Plá believes such an external economic control—without formal political displacement—could unlock real opportunities: "Should this occur, solutions could emerge."

The Current Crisis's Severity

This analysis comes amid a severe crisis. Earlier this year, CEPAL projected a 6.5% decline in Cuba's GDP by 2026, with a total contraction of around 26% since 2020. The Food Monitor Program revealed that nearly 97% of respondents on the island lack adequate access to food.

In response, the National Assembly approved a package of 176 economic and social measures in June, introduced by Prime Minister Manuel Marrero Cruz as the most ambitious reform attempt since the Special Period. These measures include the authorization of private banking, removing the cap on workers for small and medium enterprises, and the possibility of state enterprise bankruptcy.

Criticism of Reform Measures

Nevertheless, economist Pedro Monreal criticized this package as a "monstrosity" or "deformed hybrid" for failing to substantively recognize private property rights or establish a macroeconomic stabilization strategy. Plá echoes this skepticism, asserting in a broader interview that the regime's entire political and economic infrastructure is "designed and constructed, very effectively, to maintain power. That is its sole objective."

Meanwhile, discussions between Cuba and the United States show little progress, as admitted by Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez in June. Washington insists on deep structural reforms and a genuine shift towards a market economy—the very changes Plá deems essential but believes the regime is incapable of initiating internally.